mikem81

If the euro comes 50 miles west I’d actually take the NAM seriously as they’ve teamed up in prior miller A setups to trounce the gfs but I’m doubtful

This is the surface map not upper levels. Don’t see this coming up the coast unless there is a late capture like Boxing Day or Jan 2022. Similar storms came up coast from florida and needed to get pulled back in. Really impossible to know if that can happen here

To me this seems to be all of nothing. Either it gets captured just in time and comes up to Delmarva latitude or doesn’t and shunts east at NC

Really just need the ULL to capture the souther stream and keep it at the coast longer. Some would call it a slight tug or yank

18Z icon just your typical 100 mile shift every cycle

Watch Bernie Rayno’s new video as it explains why this storm just isn’t going to come up the coast. Damn kicker pushing the ULL to form too far east and keep trough positively tilted. Not sure what JB is referring to as the ULL position seems to be obviously east

Bernie Rayno had decent video. Essentially blaming the energy entering the west coast kicking the ULL formation east of yesterdays runs

If someone can look at h5 from yesterdays 12z euro and compare to todays and somehow explain why the surface is so Much worse today is really appreciate it. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025021512&fh=120 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-fast&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025021612&fh=96

The ULL actually appears to consolidate earlier at better on the more recent EURO runs. Don’t really understand how this is translating into the offshore results. I can see the GFS result with the ULL never really getting its act together until it’s too late but the EURO h5 seems weird to produce what it is showing

any thoughts as to if the double low/convectiomoffshore is messing the LP track? We’ve had that inpast storms with the track from Savannah up the coast

any thoughts as to if the double low/convectiom offshore is messing the LP track? We’ve had that in past storms with the track from Savannah up the coast

06 12z

Oy this is terrible. What a crazy let down last 24 hours

The problem is this is by far the most NW of all models. Others need a 150-200 mile shift

The map showing snow in PA and in New England is misleading. In reality almost all the snow there falls today so the storm for Thursday is still SE of the area. I’m hoping this trends NW as well but just pointing out the snow may includes totals to the north west and NE that are falling now