Pityflakes

Moderate sleet/IP, 3.5 inches on the ground in Springfield VA

I’m sorry but it has to be said. This storm sucks. What a waste of epic artic cold and prolific moisture. Didn’t get to see one real snowflake in the daytime and now I get to be pelted by sleet as I shovel concrete. Maybe 3 inches in Springfield which is now just getting compacted by sleet. At this point I’m hoping for freezing rain since at least it will make the trees pretty. I don’t care what the official “accumulation” figures are at the airports which count sleet on their boards, this is a big bust by all measures. #endofweeniecrashout.

Accumulation yes, but would sleet actually add to snow depth (which is all anyone who isn't a weirdo like us will pay attention to). Sleet usually doesn't just sit nicely "on top" of fresh powdery snow but rather it mixes in with it and even compacts it.

I always wondered what 2-3 inches of sleet would actually look like... Did any of the models over the weekend sniff out the amped/cutting idea? Were their red flags? [And yes, I know that potential for a 6" snow in the cities is not a "fail" but its certainly not in the same league as a 12-18+ mauling]

Seriously how could we fail at this point? Nine times of of ten we fail because of BL temps/sun angle/rates/DST/lack of moisture. Here we have mega cold (up to 750mb) and moisture transport galore. The other times we fail because we're relying on a coastal that just doesn't get its act together in time or is shunted south at the last minute. No so here we are 6-12 before the coastal really gets going.

A run for the archives

heavy virga

Hopefully will result in a pausing of the north/amped "trend"

Have to love GFS being on an island but you also have to admit the GFS solution is more consistent with our longwave pattern and historical trend of suppressive cold and little phasing/interaction between NS and SS. That's a huge cold high pressing down on us as verbatim that isn't typically present in setup that results in a miller A coastal riding up and giving the whole MA/NE 6-12+. Hate to be that guy, but I'd feel a lot better if the GFS starts caving in the next 12-24 hours.

The Euro and the pre-12z GFS have a little vort max rounding the Ohio Valley and it "screws up" the orientation of the 500mb trough axis and delays it going negative. The 12z GFS doesn't have that. It's not crazy to think the models (even the Euro) might be overdoing that little piece of energy. Though without a big block or 50/50 low I'd be a little skeptical that the surface low hugs the coast as depicted but who knows.

I know the models aren't showing much verbatim at the moment, but we must score at some point in this upcoming pattern right? Nearly all the pieces are there, PNA, vortex placement, some moderate blocking (maybe), southern stream energy/moisture? Not saying the "big one" is a lock, but chances seem more than decent for a coastal that gives us the goods.

GFS at 12z looks...different

GFS is trying for the midweek thing next week. Surface looks warm if but that southern energy wraps up earlier we have a shot from DC east at least. Thereafter is def intriguing even though we don't have a storm to track yet. PAC and temps are good. Need blocking and southern stream energy.

Does anyone have a DCA sounding for precip onset time? Is this a cold chasing precip situation? Or are we expecting to wetbulb down pretty quick after precip starts? Surface looks warm.

We'll be nowcasting this one till the bitter end.