TullyHeel
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Everything posted by TullyHeel
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NAM was worse, GFS wasn't as good, and now the Canadian and FV3 are colder and snowier. I guess we get the model wars now.
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It would also be nice if people gave proof as to why the models are wrong, other factors they can actually show, instead of just saying climatology and it's rare to get a big winter storm here.
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Yeah, Canadian was actually better compared to its previous runs. GFS still looked good for most of NC. That would still be a big storm for here.
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Nice jump in totals from Raleigh to the Triad.
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Seriously, for a storm so early in December, that is huge. That would be my snowfall average for winter.
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Still 5 to 8 for Wake. I'd gladly take that.
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Well, maybe the models are doing a 180 today. Only waited about 60 hours out
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Looks like that NAM run might be a little off.
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Either way, it would be a big winter storm here, even if it isn't snow.
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Well, more room for me up here on the cliff with all the folks jumping after that one NAM run. If you know things are going to always turn out bad, I'm not sure why you even come on here until 24 hours out before a storm is supposed to hit.
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If you're married and/or have kids, I'd bank on one of those.
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That is what I was wondering, if it was based on any other data they have right now, or if it is just based on what has happened in the past.
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Okay, so where is the info that shows they could be wrong? What is the other info that RAH is basing their forecast on right now? What other data are they using besides the fact storms as big as the models are showing are rare here?
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It been is just hard for me to ignore the consistency and agreement with the various models. I know what has happened in the past, but we also don't usually have this much consistency and agreement with the models. They would all have to be wrong or start to do a complete 180 now.
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Yet, all the models went farther east with snow. I would really like to know why they think it will be different.
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What did he say?
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That is what I am looking for, too. If you have some other reason or technology showing the models are wrong, then what is it? Just because it is rare to get a storm like the models show here and this early in December is not enough reason.
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History also told us Florence should have went out to sea, and it the models were right.
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Wow, looked like the GFS, Euro, FV3, and NAM all crushed NC last night from Raleigh westward. I don't think I have ever seen all the models do that before.
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Canadian went south, eh?
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So, cooler or warmer?
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NAM really bringing in the cold air to NC.
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I just don't think you can discount the consistency of the models, and how different models are showing the same thing over and over. And everything has trended colder and farther south and east with the snow all day. Yeah, I can see questioning getting a foot here, but even half of that would be amazing this early in December. I just don't see this being more rain than mostly snow and other frozen precip based on how consistent and similar the Euro, GFS, FV3, and NAM have been.
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Looks like the totals increased again farther south and east on the GFS.
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We also saw a hurricane do something that has never been done before with Florence.
