TullyHeel
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Everything posted by TullyHeel
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That area they have circled looks too conservative to me. I think at least 4 to 6 of snow with ice on top.
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I think we could get 6 to 8 of snow with some ice on top.
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If the FV3 got this right, the totals will be huge. It has been very consistent.
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The model runs continue to look fantastic. Great to see them stay consistent or get even better the closer we get.
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I just don't. Why do you think it will be?
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I don't think the warming aloft will be as bad as you think. I think we will get a good thump of snow like Allan said, 4 to 6 inches, before getting some ice on top of it.
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Naw, y'all got that here already.
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Euro and FV3 have both been very consistent with their outputs the last two days.
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It is coming
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Great, the other mod comes in and deletes my comment that was on topic just as much as others. Guess some things never change.
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So really this is coming down to the globals vs. the NAM. But even the NAM looked better last run.
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The globals are not backing down at all.
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I would gladly take 3 to 5 inches with the first storm threat of the season.
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So, either that much freezing rain, 8 inches of snow, or 4 inches of snow and .40 of freezing rain is going to be a big deal.
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Even if it isn't all snow, that is still a big storm regardless with snow and ice mix.
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At least now they are saying a big storm could be a possibility instead of 1 to 2 inches.
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Big turnaround with the NAM.
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NAM looking good so far.
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Love seeing that. This would be a major storm for most of NC.
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I am saying the totals they are showing rarely happen here. But it seems that is what most people are basing everything on in discounting the models. And if you have that attitude about what the models show, even when the majority of them have been showing the same thing the past two days, then I don't even get the point of looking at them.
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Euro, UK, and CMC all look good. Not sure why people are saying they are showing less snow. Looks pretty consistent to me. It seems folks just don't want to believe the models because what they are showing is rare here.
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So, really it's one NAM run that was bad, one GFS run that wasn't quite as good versus the UK, FV3, and Canadian that still look great today.
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FV3 singing some Tom Petty, I won't back down.
