TullyHeel

Greg Fishel's thoughts. He actually likes the GFS over the Euro. HERE WE GO AGAIN! No sooner do we get done with one winter tease, and now we appear headed for an encore performance later this week or over the weekend. The operative word here is "tease"! I must say, after singing the praises of the European model for decades, something has gone very wrong with our friends across the pond. Take the last 3 model runs for instance-big snow to nothing to big snow. I actually trust the American global model more now, and I never thought I would utter those words. Well, no matter what happens with precipitation, another potent shot of arctic air is on the way, and our overall below normal temperture pattern seems destined to continue for awhile. We've experienced below normal temperatures 7 of the last 10 days, with more to come. If anything does happen later this week, it would be induced by the development of a wave of low pressure along the leading edge of the next cold air mass. The question is does that happen, or is it just an innocent cold frontal passage? Time will tell.

The UK

So, looks like we have a lot of possible scenarios still and the models are all showing different ones.

Looks like having multiple disturbances is what's making this so hard to figure out on the models now. Two days ago it was easy.

I will gladly take this. Just tired of the models, and it's pretty much all of them, showing a big storm with a great evolution 7 days out, and then becoming a complicated mess when we get inside 5 days.

I wonder if the two different waves is making it difficult for the models to pick up on what really will happen.

It is getting frustrating to see the models show these great snow storms with temps in the 20s here about 7 days out only for it to become a mess two days later and trying to figure out if we'll actually get snow, ice, or rain.

So, we're about 3 days out from a possible storm and GFS is still trying to figure out if we'll have one or two storms this week.

Second punch looks impressive.

Looks like the GFS wants to give us a possible one-two punch this week.

Euro actually a huge hit for NC north of 95.

Good thing is all the models are showing a storm. We'll just see what kind of wintery weather it will bring.

Yeah, just can't have the stupid warm nose creep north again and turn it to ice.

Also showed a lot of ice for NC and SC. Makes me concerned it's going to end up like the storm we just had with the stupid warm air in the middle layers ruining the snow chances.

Supposed to have temps in the 20s but still have to worry about ice.

Yeah, looks like a lot of mix just like today's storm. Hope that isn't the case.

Where is burgertime with the play by play?

We need the storm thread pinned, plesse.

Sounds like today's storm is wrapping up. Need to get this thread pinned.

Looks like high ratios with the Kuchera output showing more than the 10:1 output.

I would be okay with it.

IF we get the usual NW trend.

Wonder if we'll see the usual NW trend with this one.