TullyHeel
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Everything posted by TullyHeel
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Or they don't have internet up there. -
Wake always seems to be the boundary line. Just depends on how far south or north in Wake that line is.
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FV3 has accumulating snow in the Triangle in 6 to 7 hours.
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NAM appears to be wrong in a good way.
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I would forget the globals now and concentrate on the short range models. I think the NAM is on an island by itself, but has trended colder the last run. I think the RAP, HRRR and RGEM have it right. I think there is going be a sharp cutoff starting in Wake County for NC, though. Probably an inch in the southern part of the county to 4 in the northern part.
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RDPS looks good.
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Sounds like he thinks the NAM is an outlier, too.
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Has downtown Raleigh right at the cutoff line for snow and 3 inches for me.
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Hopefully it keeps correcting further east.
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I don't think the precip is going to be a problem. It's going to come down to colder vs warmer.
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Here's the NAM. Still has me on the line of 1 and 2 inches even with being warmer than all the other models.
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NAM is still warmer than all the other models. Hardly anything here but all the other models have me getting 2 to 4 inches.
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Last run of the Euro also has me at 4 inches. The NAM seems to be by itself.
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I saw the last run at 18Z. HRRR looks very similar.
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Yeah, this is the best run yet. Has me with 4 inches.
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Good. The NAM has been ugly today. The Euro has consistently been showing a good storm here.
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RAP looked warmer.
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RAP out to 18.
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NAM and GFS are worlds apart from every other model. All the others are showing at least 2 inches for Raleigh north and west.
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18Z RGM has all snow for Wake and areas north and west until the very last hour of precip.
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They never want to bust calling for too much. Would rather bust calling for too little.
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They must love the NAM and are mostly dismissing all the other models.
