taylorsweather

Yes, Hudson Bay is noticeably lagging but it's northern reaches are beginning to freeze over as permanent night begins. It won't take long to catch up.

Extent is now 92,000 km2 above its low three days ago. So minimum may have occurred on 9/13.

It may take several days longer to be sure, but Jaxa extent minimum may have been reached two days ago at 4.612 million km2. We currently stand 54,000 km2 above that number after two straight days of increase.

Will the shape of the coastline as Ida approaches cause any wobbles left or right, and any contraction in the eye due to frictional effects?

I don't disagree with anything you wrote in this post. Everyone is to blame here and not just a few. The vitriol serves no purpose other than dilute energy and thought toward a better tomorrow. When you look to the past that means your back is to the future.

I didn't know you could live off the grid and still be connected to the internet. Not only because being connected uses carbon but someone off the grid is spending most of their time foraging for food. A few people do it of course but not many do or can. For the other 99.9999% of the population, it is difficult to blame the manufacturers of carbon for supplying something that we demand to use. So before one can blame the suppliers, we should be sure to shut off our use of such products, which is essentially EVERY product. Only then can we rail against carbon use. Personally I am all for nuclear energy. It is clean and efficient.

I agree. It would take 10-15 years for a full recovery if it occurs. Even in the 70's, MYI never got much older than 7 years old anywhere except right along the Canadian coast. Most of the remainder of MYI was 2-5 years old before being flushed out. The real difference is that there was a lot more MYI over the entire basin rather than be limited to the Canadian side. Of particular interest to me is what happens on the Siberian side of the ocean. If sea ice can maintain itself over multi years near that coast, I think that tips us toward an ice recovery and colder weather overall for 2-3 decades afterwards. I just don't see a mechanism for how that happens yet. Cycles of sea ice reduction and recovery has happened in the past but we didn't have satellite data to observe it and understand it. Not saying that you're doing this, but I don't get the hand waving on either side. Ice has declined since my youth in the 70's but I feel it is too early to make judgements as to whether it is permanent or temporary. Earth's counterbalance measures are extraordinary and she hasn't entered the fray yet. It's too soon to tell either way. Give it 20 years and we'll know by then.

You will agree of course that climate goes through cycles, with some on the order of multidecadal up through millennial timescales. So with that said, is it any wonder that during one of these 60-70 year or greater cycles we come across an "unprecedented" situation after only 32 years of recordkeeping. Fact is, every single record for the first couple years at that station was unprecedented. Now if the Arctic keeps this up for another 20 years, I could become more alarmed, but until we go through a full climate cycle, color me not impressed with a 32 year snapshot of a multi-million year record.

Jaxa extent has slowed down quite a bit recently, and with yesterday 13,000km2 loss, extent now stands at 5.234M km2. My guess is that we end near 4.9M km2 as we only have about two weeks more of the potential for significant ice loss melting days before the melt season ends.

Not only that, but the 12z GFS now takes Florence SW along the coast and into the Georgetown, SC area. After that it takes it across central SC to Clemson in the far southwestern part of the upstate. That's a significant movement toward the Euro idea of a strong southern component before the drift west. We'll see what the Euro has to say in an hour, but at this time, the two models are only 75 miles apart in the path to the west, with the GFS being further north. If the GFS is correct, NC gets most of the rain. If the Euro is correct, SC and parts of NC get most of the rain. My feeling as someone 200 miles from the ocean is that the Euro has performed extremely well on Florence and has smelled out the wrinkles better, so I'm riding that model til the end.

Can we stop with the Hugo redux commentary. Florence isn't anything like Hugo in intensity history, past and future track, expected landfall, or expected speed following landfall. Literally nothing about Florence is like Hugo except a big high to the north blocking passage. As has been mentioned, Florence is more similar to other tracks and could be used as plausible analogs to her.

I don't necessarily disagree with your point about the eventual landfall location based on intensity, but will caution that there is more to landfall than intensity. The strength/weakness and shape of the ridging to the north, not to mention speed of the cyclone, will play a larger role in where this ends imo.

much appreciated

what is the current sea ice extent, and where is that number in relationship to the past two weeks. I can't find where the daily data is located, so any assistance would be appreciated.