taylorsweather

Because it's action that we can follow. I hope you aren't one of THEM. Last I checked, I'm in line to get 21 inches of rain this coming week. I'm thankful that I can experience that in my lifetime.

It is unlikely that we ever see an eye so slow down on that. Just be thankful that we are following something approaching the USA coast.

It is a pretty looking thing, this Debby. It already is starting that buzzsaw look and pulling energy from afar. Can't wait to see what this looks like after DMAX.

The Atlantic is no slouch either. It's 84.4F along Hilton Head right now, so there is no lack of fuel anywhere in its path.

I don't disagree with anything you said, but there is always a first. Maybe that is part of the reason CHS is calling it a rare event. GFS/EURO have had at least three 12 hour cycles in a row now with the same idea. Of course they can be wrong, but ...

The stall slow movement occurs as it approaches the SE GA coast and just offshore. There may be as much as 72 hours of SE fetch off the gulf stream into the coastal communities before Debby starts a slow but steady movement NW, N or NNE. To be determined.

Hydrology disco out of CHS: .HYDROLOGY... While there are still uncertainties regarding the track, timing, and strength of Debby, there is increasing confidence that the system will produce a rare and uncommon rainfall and flooding event across southeast GA and southeast SC. The setup is quite ideal for a prolonged widespread intense rainfall event with precipitable water values surging to 2.5 inches or greater and a near stationary or slowly meandering system that is expected to be strengthening while in close proximity to the GA/SC coast. Sunday rainfall will mostly (if not completely) be convectively driven and independent of the circulation envelope around Debby. We currently expect the outer bands of the system to begin spreading into southeast GA as soon as Sunday night and definitely into Monday. From there, the heavy rainfall threat will persist until the system exits the area, which might not be until Friday. Broadly speaking, rainfall totals are expected to be in the 6-12 inch range across all of southeast GA/SC, with 8-12 inches along the coastal corridor. Locally higher amounts of up to 18 inches are expected. If these rainfall amounts come to fruition, we can expect to see widespread considerable flash flooding across the area, especially along the coastal corridor with the threat being heightened around the metro areas of Savannah, Beaufort/Hilton Head, and Charleston. With these rainfall totals, the expected impacts will likely include flooded homes and structures, damages to roadways including washouts, and uncommon flooding along smaller creeks and streams. Rainfall will likely come in bands with periods of very intense rainfall followed by periods of light rain or even no rain at times. Unfortunately, it is still too early to highlight specific time periods of when the most intense rainfall could occur. Timing details, as well as adjustments to the rainfall totals, can be expected in subsequent forecast updates.

Since the storm now exists and the environment sufficiently sampled around the storm, the Euro in an hour or so will be telling if it agrees with the GFS or the UKMET.

12z GFS is very similar to 06z in that it stalls along the GA/SC coast for 120 hours of heavy rainfall before moving toward the SC Upstate and spinning down. That would be epic flooding, even for sandy soil. I'm seeing general 15-20 inch amounts from SAV to CHS as the firehose off the Atlantic is continuous. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro sees something similar.

The visible now clearly shows low level rotation over Cuba. Should be entering the gulf in 5-6 hours

The 06z GFS has a weenie solution. Exits GA coast around Brunswick and rides slowly up the coast to SAV, then pushes 50-60 miles out to sea, only to head back to Brunswick where it continues to push inland until dying around Greenville, SC in the Upstate. Those would be epic rains for someone if it verified. A heavy rainmaker along the GA and lower SC coasts for 90 straight hours. LOL There will be epic rains but not sold on the loop back slightly to the south along the coast.

The UKMET and CMC show that solution, but the Euro and GFS are fairly close to each other exit near Brunswick, GA and slowly rides north along the east coast.

My forecast has me getting 15" in the next seven days. Less impact toward I-95 but that road has been shut down for flooding before so keep an eye on road conditions. Not much in the way of heavy wind expected but with all that rain, trees will fall with marginal wind. It seems like no matter the angle of approach, the models invariably end up around Brunswick, GA for exit to the Atlantic. From there it's a question as to whether it hugs the coast going slowly north with primarily rain, or whether it stays 50-75 miles offshore and becomes a larger wind impact for NC.

That was the Euro solution at 12z yesterday

South of Cuba was the 12z track yesterday from the Euro. Went further into the gulf but still ended up hitting the Big Bend area and stalling off SAV.

I noticed that it never gets to OBX but meanders back WSW to SW to the SC coast. The slow drift SW rarely seems to work out for that long of a time period so this smells like a model waffle until better data comes along.

Interesting that both the GFS and Euro ensembles get to SAV with two different tracks. Since the Euro goes wide left to get back to the right, that means it's speed is greater and ends up being picked up by the trough in the same manner as it nears the FL coast. The real weather is that the W coast of FL gets heavy rain in the GFS solution, while the Euro seems to stall out between 96 and 120. Honestly this far out, I'm impressed that the models have similar outcomes. The evolution of a low level center and data ingestion over the next 24-36 hours will give us more clarity in this storm.

So it looks like extent in the Arctic reached 15.1M on 3/11. Probably does not get higher than that but there is a small chance it could. That said, that is the highest extent in winter since 2014. Surprised no one mentioned it.

Picked up 2.31" of mainly steady rain mixed with a couple downpours yesterday. A very nice dump with another on the way Thursday.

The 00z GFS says the cold shot is brief and not nearly as deep as previous runs. Temps next Saturday (3/12) at GSP are 59/28. Chilly but nothing Earth shattering for mid March. That does not mean NC or VA won't see true cold, but the extended and deep cold into SC has evaporated.

Unless a Superstorm 93 materializes again (1 in a 100 year chance), I don't see snow outside Central and Western NC and VA. People laugh at climo but we have climo for a reason. It's the different between snow and 30 degrees in mid January and rain and 35 in mid February. Yes, you can get a snowstorm down in SC in March but the setup has less and less margin for error the further we go from here. That's climo in a nutshell. I'm a snow lover but a realist as well. The next two weeks do not show any snow here and then you're into March. It is what it is.

At GSP, the average high is 52 in mid January. By February 1st, it's 54. By March 1st it's 60. A six degree change over February is a strong signal that our time for snow is running out, especially during the daytime. Obviously we can all recount exceptions to this rule, but the further we go, the more perfect you need the setup to cash in. I know this is a Debbie Downer post, but given that the pattern in the East starting in mid February is not ideal, I just don't see any meaningful snows (>1"), especially in Upstate SC along I-85 where I am located. I have seen many winters and at some point the cold exhausts itself and you're left with "manufacturing" the cold to get snow. It does happen, but rarely. This post does not apply to CNC, WNC, and VA where they are closer to the cold source. Climatology is a b!tch.

It's certainly better than knowing winter is over in mid January. This weekend is a legit threat but marginal. We are only at Feb 1st, but my feeling is that by mid-Feb, climo tends to tip marginal threats into no-go threats. You need a strong setup to create a winter event by then except in VA and NC. Upstate SC where you and I are tends to get shafted by then.

... and if the long range models are correct, we begin a warmup after the 15th that lasts into March.