Wonderdog

Get that HP to move to the NE on the GFS 12z run on 1/4/2020, and we might get a coastal in our backyard!

The period of 1/4-6/20 has been showing up as a period worth watching. And to my untrained eye, H5 looks half-way decent during that time. And if not, take solace in the fact that the EAGLES sent the Cowboys packing, maybe.

What a different look at H5 between 6z and 12z on the GFS. Looks like the 12z is going back to its idea at 0z. Can't keep up with this uncertainly at 300 hrs.

I like the look of the 12Z GFS for the storm at end of the run.lp runs into KY instead of Chicago!

All the more reason to take model runs that are out in time with at least a couple of grains of salt. (But if it's bad news like you guys are saying, it's probably going to verify). If it's showing a cold, above normal precip. scenario, it's probably wrong.

I remember that also. I was referring to the late Dec to Feb timeframe.

Three massive snowfalls, one in December and two in the same week in February. Between December and February though, meh. But maybe that was because there were no real threats for the models to agree on during that time.

Recently it seems that we have really only mid Jan. through Feb as the most likely time that we get snow in the coastal plain, besides these useless mulch covering snowfalls. Although, for years growing up in South Jersey, my recollection is that the last two weeks of December was a transition period and useful snowfall was rare. But that is my questionable memory.

So we have the EURO and the CMC bringing the lp up to Hatteras. Need the 1033 hp to drop down some to funnel some cold air in and somehow get the lp to bomb out. Plenty of time to get it done.

So CMC brought back the GFS weekend storm. Interesting.

12/28-30 or so is a time period I'm watching after last two GFS op runs is bringing a cold front thru with maybe a storm popping along the front.

I take solace in the fact that the GFS still has a storm on the 22nd and that it strengthens along the east coast . Maybe we can get a rain to snow situation.

Nice to see a moisture laden system heading our way in 8 days or so. Appears to be the blocking with a 1038 hp hanging around for the duration of the 2 day event near NY/Canadian border; a redeveloping storm off the coast which is slow to leave the area. Of course, a storm that is 9 or 10 days off is hard to fathom given the unreliable medium/ long range accuracy but still nice to see on a model run. Keep your fingers crossed. Have really enjoyed reading about this period of time with the learned input from the usual suspects, Bob C. PSU, Showme, C.A.P.E and others. Bring it home!

Me too. I'm firmly in the 2.1 area!

Can't make up its mind

Nice ridging out west for this possible event.

The ns has been backing off since yesterday evening. Would that have a big effect on the cold front making it to the east coast?

Does anyone think that the GFS depiction for next weekend will actually take the track it shows at 18z. Actually I guess I'm asking how common is a track like that. I always thought it was either the typical ride up the Appalachians or a coastal.

Light rain and 48 in Gainesville.

That lp in the nw has come out of no where on this run. Lots of moving parts and the storm has sped up it appears.

That would be quite the front end thump. I like those types of storms. Fun tracking coming up!

End of the run on the GFS looks promising as well!

Uh oh, Friday the 13th.

Being an Eagles fan I agree. A very good trick play and poor coaching contributed to the loss. I wish the coaches would buy into a consistent running game like about 25 touches for Sanders. He's the real deal. Ertz kinda sucked today from what I hear. Now I have to hope Dallas loses to either Chicago or the Rams but I'm thinking the Eagles have probably run out of reprieves.

Cloudy, misty, and 37 in Gainesville.