Wonderdog

Get that HP to move to the NE on the GFS 12z run on 1/4/2020, and we might get a coastal in our backyard!

The period of 1/4-6/20 has been showing up as a period worth watching. And to my untrained eye, H5 looks half-way decent during that time. And if not, take solace in the fact that the EAGLES sent the Cowboys packing, maybe.

What a different look at H5 between 6z and 12z on the GFS. Looks like the 12z is going back to its idea at 0z. Can't keep up with this uncertainly at 300 hrs.

I like the look of the 12Z GFS for the storm at end of the run.lp runs into KY instead of Chicago!

All the more reason to take model runs that are out in time with at least a couple of grains of salt. (But if it's bad news like you guys are saying, it's probably going to verify). If it's showing a cold, above normal precip. scenario, it's probably wrong.

I remember that also. I was referring to the late Dec to Feb timeframe.

Three massive snowfalls, one in December and two in the same week in February. Between December and February though, meh. But maybe that was because there were no real threats for the models to agree on during that time.

Recently it seems that we have really only mid Jan. through Feb as the most likely time that we get snow in the coastal plain, besides these useless mulch covering snowfalls. Although, for years growing up in South Jersey, my recollection is that the last two weeks of December was a transition period and useful snowfall was rare. But that is my questionable memory.

So we have the EURO and the CMC bringing the lp up to Hatteras. Need the 1033 hp to drop down some to funnel some cold air in and somehow get the lp to bomb out. Plenty of time to get it done.

So CMC brought back the GFS weekend storm. Interesting.

12/28-30 or so is a time period I'm watching after last two GFS op runs is bringing a cold front thru with maybe a storm popping along the front.

All snow atm in Reston, 31.

Moderate snow and sleet in Gainesville 32ﾟ

Moderate snow and sleet in Gainesville 32ﾟ

Think we'll get snow and pellets that whiten the ground which turns to plain rain about 8:39am, give or take 7 and a half minutes. Start time 3:45am

Have to say that the GFS has been very consistent for a number of runs for this event, unlike the storm or no storm next weekend.

It can get incrementally better if you believe in trends.

I qualified it by saying near. Still plenty of time for a trend into the promised land!

I like the little blue splotch near Gainesville, VA!

I take solace in the fact that the GFS still has a storm on the 22nd and that it strengthens along the east coast . Maybe we can get a rain to snow situation.

Nice to see a moisture laden system heading our way in 8 days or so. Appears to be the blocking with a 1038 hp hanging around for the duration of the 2 day event near NY/Canadian border; a redeveloping storm off the coast which is slow to leave the area. Of course, a storm that is 9 or 10 days off is hard to fathom given the unreliable medium/ long range accuracy but still nice to see on a model run. Keep your fingers crossed. Have really enjoyed reading about this period of time with the learned input from the usual suspects, Bob C. PSU, Showme, C.A.P.E and others. Bring it home!

Me too. I'm firmly in the 2.1 area!

Can't make up its mind

Grass and shrubs lightly covered 32

Nice ridging out west for this possible event.