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TPAwx

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  1. TPAwx
    The more salient question is how does this compare to Sandy?
  2. TPAwx
    Well that’s not good.
  3. TPAwx
    I’m in Evac Zone A in Tampa, so while worth monitoring this is way too far out and the trajectory and details will absolutely change.
  4. TPAwx
    Wouldn’t be shocked if this guy has a really extensive collection of blowup dolls and skinsuits
  5. TPAwx
    Euro op stays offshore but brings a sustained strong fetch up to the NE. A few ensembles cut across the FL peninsula but most stay offshore. Mostly good news relative to 0z.
  6. TPAwx
  7. TPAwx
    To say the Euro had a different solution overnight on 95L is an understatement. Cat 3 off Carolinas and then landfall in southern NJ as a Cat 2.
  8. TPAwx
    Meanwhile, a serene morning here in Tampa Bay. Always reminded that if a system like Dorian approaches TB at a particular direction, my neighborhood is under 30+ feet of water.
  9. TPAwx
    Hyperbole: “errrmahgawd that decaying Cat 1 currently forecast to continue moving east is going to bomb to cat 5 and turn west and destroy everything!. This is awesome!!” Not hyperbole: Obs of high water hundreds of miles from the main area of impact, comments that the surge in some places will be terrible and unprecedented.
  10. TPAwx
    It’s not expected to intensify.
  11. TPAwx
    FV3 has a 30-36 hour slow crawl from near ILM to NC/SC border. Really impactful scenario for piling in water and then dumping on top of it.
  12. TPAwx
    This GFS run looks sub optimal for NC.
  13. TPAwx
    FV3 then cuts across SC, up around WV and ends up over DC metro Tuesday evening.
  14. TPAwx
    FV3 never fully comes ashore near Wilmington then stalls/mini loops then down the coast to near Charleston.
  15. TPAwx
  16. TPAwx
    Animate from here, h72 in Tropical Tidbits: where is my captain
  17. TPAwx
    The post landfall track on the 18z FV3 is epic. Also big dump in eastern NC and SE VA.
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