TPAwx

6z GFS has landfall between Englewood and Venice around 5PM. Surprised to see the slight north jog overnight, impressive intensification to Cat 5. Got the family 20 miles north of Tampa yesterday. Light to mod rain here and breeze is picking up.

GFS has landfall slightly north of Englewood Wednesday evening

18z GFS just a tick east at 15

* their

Hillsborough County moved to mandatory evac for zone B, another 100k people. Lots will stay but the roads are gonna be dicey.

6z Euro has landfall right at Sarasota around 11pm Wednesday. That's a jump north from 0z

Yes indeed. You've got that sustained fetch for 24+ hours, layered with 20+ inches of rain that has nowhere to go. The main rivers are dumping all that into the bays. I'm on an east facing shoreline of Hillsborough Bay so I'm going to have an n=1 scenario play out.

Assuming track is south of TB headlines for this area will likely be extensive rain driven flooding and downed trees into structures. Some of the QPF outputs on the overnight model runs are ridiculous. Looks like 20+ is possible if the track and slowdown verifies.

Yeah for sure, plenty of wind and 15+ inches of rain on this run.

Edit, Euro landfall between Siesta Key and Venice verbatim Wed 5pm

Euro has landfall near Sarasota Siesta Key/Venice late Wednesday

it would be devastating. To preface, much of the area has minor but disruptive flooding with heavy summer t-storms. That much rain has no place to go. The city/metro has extremely dense vegetation and tree cover (one research outfit rated Tampa the #1 city in the world for tree cover). We obviously have tall palm trees but we have a lot of huge oaks. Massive amounts of trees and branches would come down on properties and streets, power outages would be extensive. All that falling and standing water would do a number on structures. With that stall easterly fetch would also push a ton of water around and carve up east facing shoreline. I'm not a hydrologist so I'm sure there's plenty of other impacts on infrastructure and public health. Overall, a sub-optimal amount of rain and scenario.

Hard pass.

The scenarios are not equally devastating. TB/Hillsborough/Pinelllas County have a much higher degree of population/property/economic exposure and risk than Sarasota or Fort Myers. It’s easily accessible data and research.

GFS coming in tight to coast earlier, would drive higher surge across TB

Perhaps the UK hooked onto the late stage evolution from early stages and this goes inland south of TB.

Local surge watch was initialized at 5-8 and then updated to 7-10. With the GFS and Euro scenarios it would be higher in some locations.

Reminds me of the NAM runs when I lived in NOVA that would spit out 50 inches of snow. Thankfully this one won’t verify either

It’s a crusher. Watching the loop, it literally crawls up to the bay and sits over us. Getting ready to eat a wrap and some onion rings from my freezer (use it or lose it), just lost my appetite.

GFS as depicted is really bad for TB

12z is coming in east of 6z edit - material shift thru 63

ICON is a terrible solution for TB

Mandatory evac Zone A for Tampa peeps starting 2pm today.

Not a lot of analogues, but for reference Eta was in the low 990s at 50 miles off Clearwater Beach and produced a 4 ft surge in Old Port Tampa Bay. At peak Eta was 922/130 kts