TPAwx

It's all across the TB area. Debris removal has been in progress, but the scale of the job is enormous.

That sucks, best of luck. We have multiple friends and neighbors that lost primary or second homes, and many others dealing with damage. Milton would literally defeat a lot of people here. Still developing so a range of outcomes are possible.

For this cycle all landfall north of TB. Big time surge set up.

GEFS tracks clustered between Sarasota to Crystal River.

Landfall appears closer to Homosassa/Crystal River. Still a significant problem for TB.

meant to drop this here

That run would be bad news Wild.

GFS coming in hot.

Some of the EPS members that track and landfall just north of TB suggest cat 2 or maybe cat 3. That trajectory and strength are concerning for the Bay area but still just scenarios at this point.

Verbatim the Euro op landfalls south of TB around Sarasota/Siesta Key midday Wednesday.

True, tho we still have the wide average track error at this stage. Point taken that the signal is there and the set up could support development. I'm certainly watching like a hawk. GEFS still running, most members pointed between St Pete and Ft Myers at this stage.

Well the 12z GFS op is grabbing my attention, at least until the next model run that loses the TC

Rough estimate of 25k homes/properties in the immediate TB with some level of damage or impact, ranging from minor to total loss. So yes people are preoccupied, and that’s just this region. Local outlets have been highlighting the tropical watch area and potential rain event, but 5-10 inches of rain over 7 days doesn’t raise an alarm for most people here. The op and ensembles are still too volatile to capture and dial in attention.

The final toll will be dreadfully high. 10 known fatalities in the TB region. 8 in Pinellas County, 2 in Hillsborough/Tampa.

The flooding across a huge swath of Florida will be a big part of the story. We understood the surge forecast but it’s unprecedented in many areas. Just in from a survey of the hood in South Tampa, we flood easy but it was jaw dropping. And two hours until high tide with continued onshore flow. Heading out again after a band passes thru.

Some of the stiffest gusts of the day. Now the surge will really start to crank in and build towards early AM high tide. Should hit top end of the 5-8 forecast.

Some spin ups just south and heading towards Tampa

Be safe. Just back from a peek at Bayshore Blvd. White caps overtopping seawall. Long way to go with surge. Oak outside my office window swaying precariously.

On Hillsborough Bay, was last out at noon and water was washing over the seawall in places. High tide is between 2-3am and expecting high end of the forecast.

May top out at 60-65 in a few hours.

The debate on model validity is interesting but less relevant as we are quickly shifting to now casting and obs phases. I appreciate the expertise and input shared here to help understand what’s happening and what to expect with Helene.

Decided to shelter in place vs going to our usual comfy inland hotel. Water main break in the neighborhood late last night and lost power a few hours ago. Light band just passed thru and breeze is picking up.

Guidance for TB remains at 5-8 feet.

That was a hefty band. The precip forecast is pretty modest, but yeah ground is soaked and all the retention ponds and canals are as high as they’ve been all year.

Before perspective here in South Tampa. We have 4 lanes and medians in between the pending surge and our hood. Record known surge for Tampa is 10.5 ft from the 1921 hurricane, which was the last major to hit here. Helene's current 5-8 surge forecast should not exceed that mark, but wouldn't be surprised to see the high end or a bit more. Ironically the worst surge impact I've had IMBY since relocating here was from decaying TS ETA in Nov 2020. Point is it doesn't take a major cane to drive surge or flooding here. We regularly flood from PM summer storms.