TPAwx

GEFS has two main clusters. Largest into Central America, other to NE tip of Yucatán or just East and across Gulf to far SW FL.

Well this GFS op goes to 922 before heading to the NE Yucatán. Assume this ends up between Ft Myers and Marco later in the run.

GEFS has a cluster moving over the Yucatán into the Gulf to the FL central West Coast, and a second moving over Western Cuba into South FL.

That’s fair, especially so if it was just one run in isolation. GFS is getting persistent with signaling a strong TC into the Gulf and landfalling on FL West Coast next week. 18z has a 2 or 3 landfalling just north of Crystal River next Wednesday.

Nothing to see here. Just a major landfalling on FL West Coast a week before Thanksgiving.

A few EPS members shift east but remainder are into central Gulf.

Just one run but some eastward clustering.

A few GEFS members go over west/central Cuba then cut across SE Florida and out to sea.

12z GFS op has a major in the Eastern Gulf at 300+. Obviously too far out at this point.

TPA peak wind gust was 85 with 12” total rainfall. 72% power outage rate in Hillsborough County as of last update. Daybreak will reveal scenes of trees down everywhere and damage to structures. Tons of standing water, we get that here from PM summer thunderstorms, let alone a foot of rain. Significant impact but manageable. Anything close to peak surge would have been an entirely different story this morning. We’ll see versions of that devastation down the coast. No idea of personal impacts. Lost power and feeds to the security cameras at 9 last night. Not expecting any structural flooding from the rain, but may have tree damage to the house.

+ Structual damage from downed trees and extended power outages.

Unless Milton tugs due north in the next few hours the worst case surge scenario is off the table for Tampa. From 10-15 to 9-12 and now 6-9. High winds from the northern eyewall will do a number on the oaks and tree canopy. Lots of roofs and structural damage. Flash flooding from the heavy rainfall. Extended power outages.

Primary impacts for Tampa will likely be wind driven damage and flooding from excessive rainfall. Trees down on houses, extended power outages. Surge expectations are trending downward.

3 of 4 hurricane model landfalls clustered at Anna Maria Island/Holmes Beach. HAFS-A a bit south near Sarasota.