eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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It seems like odds of a 6" event next week have decreased. The "wave" (Tue) with the most favorable thermals has the least upper level support, PVA, frontogenesis etc. It's also weakening over time. Even the relatively wet Euro is mostly just a 3 hr burst with a little light stuff to begin and end. And the waves that follow take on a slightly unfavorable upper level orientation right now.
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0z GEFS is like 1" for the Tue/Wed wave, 2-3" for Thurs, and another 1" for Sat. Quite a drop off for early week. And a good percentage of the precipitation is modeled as non-snow.
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Yup, and there will be a few dozen more before this stretch is over. The center of modeled impact has slowly been shifting towards NE and away from the mid-Atl over the past few days. I was hoping today might be a counter trend, but it looks like that's not the case. To bet against more typical climo and in favor of something highly anomalous, you need overwhelming evidence.
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The GFS recovered a little at the end of the 3rd wave and the CMC had some snow. But 0z was still disappointing. We've steadily lost some of the big QPF #s with great moisture feed out of the Gulf. There is a small pin prick hole in the excitement balloon for next week.
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I've really been enjoying the very highly anomalous (wet) 10-day QPF on the ensemble means paired with mostly below average 850mb temps. We don't see that often. I suspect we start moving away from that now and will have to hedge more towards climo with the big snow mostly in the high terrain of NE. Hope I'm wrong. And we still obviously have a great chance of a least a moderate snowstorm next week in addition to Sunday's potential plowable event.
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The 18z GFS had almost a standing wave jet for 5 days. 0z is more of the typical wave progression with trofs and ridges.
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The trof in the SW is too sharp. Heights rise too much along the east coast. Pushes the boundary slightly too far northwest. CMC is similar.
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Back to back hits at 18z to possibly back to back misses at 0z. Ouch.
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That was the best 10-day GFS run in a long long time IMO. The overall tenor isn't even that unlikely, especially with lower amplitude trofs and modest SLP that are less sensitive to error. But statistics say anything close to this is unlikely considering the standard model error beyond day 5. But wow.
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I thought exactly like this for the past 8 years. I tried to listen, engage, and educate. But sadly I observed that repetitive jokes and insults leveled at "the left" had a normalizing and equalizing effect on politics. The lack of a strong response to most of those trivial, baseless attacks created an unconscious impression in otherwise uninformed voters that there was merit in the critiques. It gave rise to a tangible perception; a gut feeling that there was legitimacy there and that both sides had candidates deserving of consideration on merit. No amount of logic or reason could counter this emotional response. Human beings have a reflexive aversion to people who are bullied. Tragically, they respond positively to aggression and insults. I guess psychologically, nobody wants to be in the group being picked on.
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Damn well said.
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Seconded. The job of moderator is hard. No reason to make it harder.
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Actually, in all seriousness, I think you are right. This is a forum for discussing weather. This should all be deleted. But before that, I would like to encourage all like-minded people to be ready and willing to challenge less-informed people when they advance ignorant political attacks. We should be ready to counter them aggressively... In any and all public forums. We were way too gentle and tolerant last time around. Gloves come off this time.
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I'm hoping that a few have noticed in other threads that I occasionally add to discussions and am not a troll by nature. Maybe that will get me some slack.
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I'm really trying to.
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Bob, ask yourself... have you spent a lot of time outside the US? Do you have a good sense of other places and cultures, their history and political systems? Do you have an intelligent and diverse group of friends who can challenge you? Do you read a diverse selection of news? Or do you listen to political talk radio and watch Fox "news"? Be honest, do you believe you have the right foundation in life to understand and discuss politics?
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About 10% hit us solidly with multiple waves or one really big hit. In most of these cases we ride the boundary in a near ideal location for several days.The rest are one or more moderate hits with partial misses on the rest. I'd love to see the center of the action shift southeastward from NE, but I'm doubtful for now.
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That's probably true. Sorry for the inconvenience. But then again this is a banter thread. You don't have to read it. And maybe next time tell your friends not to vote against our self interests.
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I don't know everything. I count on other intelligent, thoughtful, hard working people with expertise, knowledge, and experience to analyze problems and offer solutions. We have to use science, facts, and evidence. Not emotion, gut instinct, and ideology. "Government is bad" "Taxes are bad" "Immigrants are bad" Those are not useful ideas or solutions. They are just a sign that you are being manipulated... getting played by other people who know how to use your ignorance for their gain.
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That's kind of how I feel. But in my case, I am very troubled by it.
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That doesn't even make sense. Do I need to remind you that Finland and Sweden just joined NATO? Or that these Sweden, Norway, and Finland all have strong militaries? Or that NATO relies heavily on them due to their proximity to Russia and their modern air forces? Have you ever even traveled outside the US? Outside NJ?
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50% of people are below average. But 90% of people think they are above average. "Idiot" is kind of a meaninglessly vague term. But surely there are people on here who are woefully ignorant or misinformed on many topics. Trump supporters fall into 2 overlapping categories: ignorant or selfish.
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Yup. Why wouldn't we want to emulate them? Mind boggling.
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Probably. But before that I'd like to shred a few people who deserve it. A whole lot of people deserve it.
