eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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At 8:30 in central Morris County near I-287 I observed first mixing with snow at about 500ft and 36F and first slight dusting at about 850ft and 34.5F. On the east side of the terrain fall line, it seems like the intensity isn't sufficient to dynamically cool the column enough yet to fully switch elevations below 1000ft to accumulating snow. But it's getting closer.
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Per radar reflectivity, it looks like snow is mixing in elevated Sussex and Warren and should be increasing over the next few hours.
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The HRRR keeps printing out good (wintry) runs for Orange county. The elevated western parts of the county are obviously in a good spot, but even the Rt 94 corridor looks like it could pick up a few inches. Maybe plowable in some spots. Elevated Putnam, Rockland, and even Westchester has a shot at some accumulation too if the meso models are to be believed. Hopefully at least flakes in the air for many on Friday!
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I'm thinking the towns on the NW side of the Hudson Highlands ridge do pretty well: Vernon, NJ, to Warwick, NY to Monroe, NY etc... There's an upslope-downslope component visible on the meso models favoring the NW terrain for highest QPF and lowest temps.
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This is one of those weird cases where mid elevations near places like New Milford, NJ or Chester, NY could get basically nothing or 6"... and it wouldn't be a surprise either way. The HDRPS is printing out well over an inch of precipitation after the column can support snow for much of Sussex, northern Passaic, and Orange counties. Even Rockland and western Putnam get in on the action. I don't particularly trust this model, but it's not entirely alone. Where does the banding set up tonight and does anything accumulate during the day on Friday under the ULL? My guess is Friday is mostly an elevation thing, but intense banding associated with a still deepening SLP tonight is the wild card. Satellite and radar look pretty good so far IMO.
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I think those places are in a great spot for this. The caveat for me is that this looks like a localized event as opposed to a widespread snowfall. Mesoscale banding and terrain effects will likely play a role. I wouldn't be too confident anywhere until later tonight as the radar presentation evolves.
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Seems like a good call. I worry a little about locking anything in these scenarios. The SLP and associated vorticity and precipitation shield is going to make a loop-de-loop of some sort with the radius of that loop dependent on how quickly the mid/ULL take on a negative tilt and cut off. Exactly where any stalled or retrograding banding sets up will determine who cashes in. My fear is that it pushes too far NW and then weakens by the time it rotates back in. Some ensemble members give almost nothing outside of PA and the Catskills. Others spread the wealth to Passaic, Putnam, Westchester etc...
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If it happens, it shouldn't be a surprise since even us amateurs have been talking about potential snow in that area for days. And multi-model guidance has been steadfastedly highlighting the potential. But it's been so long since we've had rain, much less snow, it will seem like a surprise no matter what.
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Overnight runs looked impressive for Sussex. Even into northern Morris and Orange. ECM, RGEM, GFS, HRDPS... Could be some surprised people up there if they wake up to saggy snow covered branches with some still leaf-covered trees. NWS Mt Holly is finally talking about the banding potential. If it sets up, someone is going to get pounded.
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Pretty much all guidance shifted towards more of a SLP loop-de-loop scenario as opposed to more of a stall. NAM and ICON had been leaning in this direction with CMC on the other end. IF this is correct, accumulating snow looks confined primarily to NEPA and higher elevations of Catskills. 18z and 0z will help determine is this change is homing on the eventual outcome or just a blip. Ultimately it's probably a nowcast, but considering the pinwheeling packets or vorticity, I think it's probably real. Best chance for flakes outside of hill towns would then probably be Fri or Fri night under the ULL with low thicknesses and steep lapse rates.
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Could be. But the NAM has also been shifting every run for 2 days. Other models - EC, CMC, GFS... even ICON have been steady. Usually when the NAM is in the consensus and then suddenly diverges, then it's sometimes onto something. In this case I think it isn't properly reflecting the anomalous synoptics. But we will probably know by 12z or 18z. A few days ago I would have guessed the NAM evolution of shifting things north and then northwest of the area was likely correct. But all other guidance disagrees. I agree about downsloping and would definitely favor the NW side of any terrain.
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The NAM is probably still adjusting. Although sometimes when it's on its own, it's right. But presumably that comes more in line with the GFS, ECM, and CMC. If so, the snow accumulation averages are going to increase in places like Sussex, NJ.
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Most model sounding profiles look pretty cold Thurs night into Friday. If the thermals are right, that could be accumulating snow down to maybe 800ft or so in spots. Yes for big snows I'd want to be in NE PA, preferably above 1500ft.
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That's a good analog for this kind of yin yang wrapped up low. FWIW, archived snowfall for the Snowicane event is wrong in Putnam County, NY, presumably due to sparse reporting in that area. Above about 500ft there was 12"+ with widespread 18-24" up a little higher back as far east as about Fahnestock State Park. East of there it dropped off rapidly. All maps and records I can find seem to indicate that the Hudson River was the dividing line, even though I know from first hand observation that that wasn't the case.
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I'm starting to think a winter storm watch isn't out of the question for Sussex and Orange tonight or tomorrow. Probably not since temps below 1000ft are marginal and the localized nature of the event makes it susceptible to small model shifts. But you can't ignore what the data is showing. There are several indications for an impactful winter storm event.
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GFS follows suit with heavy snow for Sussex and Orange as well as some for Putnam, Passaic, Westchester etc. Very good agreement now for a fairly localized snow event.
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Yeah the 18z RGEM is eye catching. Could be snow anywhere those high UVVs set up just southwest of the SLP. Some slight model disagreement about placement, so it will be interesting to see how radar and satellite evolve on Thursday. To me this looks like widespread first flakes, but very localized heavy snow. NEPA seems to win regardless of model but hopefully NNJ and the Hudson Valley cash in some too.
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Absolutely agree. As modeled in those areas it's bigger than anything I saw last winter. Quite a way to end a drought and herald in a more active period.
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Realistically that's probably a coating to 1" at 500ft, 2-4" at 1000ft, and 4-6" at 1500ft. 10:1 is only going to work out in extreme NEPA or the higher peaks of the Catskills. Banding is a wild card.
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Yup. And it's not a random model blip. We have multi-run and multi-model continuity. Sure there are some important differences between the GFS, EC, CMC, Ikon etc that affect distribution of potential snow accumulations, but everything is pointing in the same general direction. I also think snow accumulations could be pretty localized Thurs night into Fri morning before precip. tapers off, the SLP fills, boundary layer temps warm slightly, and elevation/upslope influence takes over. Where does any banding sets up and what's the trajectory of the pivot?
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Euro is a major snowstorm for Sussex County NJ above about 800ft. At this point considering model consensus you'd have to forecast snow for at least Sussex, western Orange, Ulster, Pike and Wayne PA and add snow possible, particularly above 500ft in Warren, Morris, Bergen, Passaic, Putnam, all of Orange and Westchester. Any potential accumulations outside of elevated areas will probably be a nowcast determination. But thermal profiles certainly look cold enough above 1000ft and briefly below that, depending on intensity.
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Well sure. Locally it's difficult to get snow on the backside of a storm. That's primarily due to regional topography and the timing and placement of mesoscale features. The Catskills and Taconics do better due to the upsloping component instead of downsloping. Chances are low by default in our part of the world. But we have a slow moving, mature mid and upper level low with strong moisture transport, excellent PVA, vertical accent etc. These are the prerequisites for a "wraparound" event, particularly in a marginal column. Whether the 500mb low and associated vorticity swings up into New England, northwest into CNY, or stays put in CT could determine if anybody locally whitens the ground.
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This has positive bust potential written all over it. Soundings show 35-38F with rain/snow or wet snow on the southwest side of wherever the SLP tracks. But dynamic cooling in any intense banding could easily bring that to 33 or 34 and pounding parachutes. The cold air delivery has worsened slightly in recent runs unfortunately. I think a few places could get a surprise coating to maybe an inch or two that were not expecting anything wintry. Still looks like the NJ-NY-PA border area up into the western Catskills is the place to be for a plowable event. but it's definitely worth watching even across Morris, Passaic, Putnam, Westchester etc.
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Lots of people sleeping on this end of week event. Certainly most are focusing on the drought busting potential but also squinting into the distant future for a more perfect snow threat. 12z CMC and GFS look pretty wild for the immediate NW suburbs. Rapidly developing and stalling SLP wrapping moisture back into a marginally snow-supporting column. Any distinct banding could be fun. Modeling has been very consistent and if it holds this could be a fun nowcast. Highly trackable event!
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Put on your glasses then. Or more likely you're looking too far out into the future. THIS thursday-Friday is an I-84 elevation snow threat. The kind that Walt D is often all over.
