eduggs

Yeah I think we're screwed for the forseeable future. Maybe far N&W gets a little something. I don't see anything promising right now. Not Monday, not Wednesday, not deep into the extended. Maybe it cools down at some point, but there are no distinct and promising threats. Ensembles still say the City has a chance of stealing an inch here or there. I'm doubtful of even that low threshold for the time being.

The leading edge of your round 2 snowstorm is clearly evident on radar spiraling through central PA. Feeder-band-esque. Lots of vorticity and unstable air with that feature.

GFS closer but still not there except extreme N&W. Trof flatter with a little more vorticity trailing behind than last run. Just need to keep the shifts coming.

0z ICON with one of the better runs of the year. Two solid snow threats in the mid-range and then cooking up another big one at the end. The upper levels look suspect as early at 60 hours out, so I don't trust it at all without support. But at least it shows how things could theoretically turn for the better.

The ICON looks more like the NAM than the GFS/RGEM thankfully. It's also hanging back energy in the trof... something that was apparent on the 0z NAM and even a little on the 18z EC. That is a sign of the displaced and unphased shortwaves, which could weaken but also drag out the event.

It looks like model convergence towards snow for the Poconos through Catskills and Taconics and mostly rain southeast of there. The initially sharpish shortwave in the Ohio Valley induces a weak inland primary SLP and WAA through the Mid-Atl. and our area. That screws us. But thereafter (and likely too late for us) the wave dampens and everything slips east. A key will be how strong the shortwave and primary SLP are initially. Thunderstorm development out of the Gulf tends to sharpen trofs. But if it can stay flat enough like the NAM, we might get close to the snow line. I expect the NAM to move west and warmer and the GFS to tick south and colder. Any movement by the EC, UK, and CMC will be indicative.

UK is close for Sun night-Monday but has nudged slightly warmer and westward the past 2 runs. All in all an uninspiring 0z. Hard to see a lot of wiggle room in the outcome, especially on the eastern flank. But we're definitely close enough to stay invested. Even the ICON scenario with snow for most cannot be completely discounted.

GFS queueing up a parade of rain storms per usual. At least it hasn't fooled us with too many fantasy blizzards so far this winter.

So far tonight it looks like ICON/NAM vs RGEM/GFS. UK and EC will be tonight's tie breaker. At least it feels like we have a shot this time. But being stuck rooting for a wave to be flatter is never a good position to be in.

So we have the 12z JMA and 0z UK showing snowstorms locally. That's a start! EPS and GEPS had a few hits at 12z on the individuals too.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic. But if you look at the 500mb chart, the ULL is over Chicago on Sun. night. That is unfavorable for us except with the deepest arctic airmass in place, in which case we'd get IP and ZR. The secondary SLP tracking near or south of us doesn't save us because the lower and mid-levels have already been torched due to the position of the ULL and primary SLP.

What a weenie map. Must be some phantom sleet somewhere in there for NJ, though I didn't see it in the panels. No snow anywhere near NJ or SENY on that run.

To me, the problem is that every wave takes the same path: CO to IL to Ontario. The upper levels drive SLP formation, which in turn drives fronts and airmass advection.

Lots can change as weather forecasting is unpredictable. But storm 1 is not looking promising except maybe distant N or NE suburbs with some ZR to start and inverted trof snow showers to end. I'm more interested in storm 2, but the trof axis has been immovable for days of model runs and it is too far west. A break from the rain and some decent cold still looks to be 10 days away, if it comes at all. I'm hoping for some positive surprises.

Could very well be. But the 0z was a slight step back from 12z in terms of wintry hopes locally. The trof has sharpened up, strengthening the primary SLP and increasing warm SW winds. Not the 0z I was hoping for.

For the moment, I'm firmly of the opinion that the Sun-Mon event will be rain for the coastal plane through our area. I don't like the trough axis being so far west - it virtually guarantees a primary slp near the Lakes. This looks too much like so many events so far this year. That said, there is some counter evidence to potentially threaten the narrative. The 18z ICON, 12z UK, and 12z CMC were all pretty close to a wintry event. The 12z EC wasn't too far off. And the 12z JMA looked like a snowstorm. So far the 0z ICON shifted slightly the wrong way. But any additional movement SE and/or colder for the rest of the 0z suite would put us close to the game.

Locally I'm approaching 10 months since the last 1" of snow and 24 months since the last 6" event. I decent event in 3 years. Just brutal.

Still minor changes aloft. Not big enough changes for areas outside of SNE unfortunately. But better than it shifting NW I suppose.

Is the event over for BOS?

Take the win. Could be a turning point.

How far off was QPF from the 3 or 4 run average on the EC? Or was it more the 3rd party clown maps that were off?

Radar looks pretty sweet. But oddly April-esque. Like a late Spring Ocean Gale. Very ragged echoes.

Good thing long term verification is so poor. I'd go warm for early Feb. because of persistence and background alone. But it's really too early to know. People can throw around all the correlations and analogues they want... they are modest at best. A small, unexpected wrinkle can change everything. We won't be able to see much into Feb. for at least 5-7 days.

Enjoy what you can even if it's an imperfect storm! Looks like a TROWAL to me - notoriously difficult to model. Full sunshine out my window for the first time in what feels like weeks... but your storm looks exciting AF to me. BOX snow map looks reasonable. Low low expectations leading in makes whatever happens more fun. Bust potential for sure. Funny how we miss the threats hiding in plain sight while we look for something more archetypal.