eduggs

Yeah GEFS mean is pretty wet for eastern areas. Finally coming around.

Consensus is two QPF maxes: one in EPA and one in EMA. Ratios might be better in PA but it's impossible to know where best banding will set up.

A serious step back towards the wild 6z run. Not quite as expansive on the NW, but still great for eastern SNE. We probably won't know until nowcast time.

I see it now, thanks!

The HRRR is a dangerous tool, highly susceptible to wishcasting. 500mb on the HRRR would be helpful to guard against model field hallucinations, but I don't think that parameter is available.

To me if looks like the lowest surface pressure is a couple of mbs lower on the western lobe and a couple higher on the eastern. Pressure field looks otherwise very similar to 18z when I toggle between them. The biggest difference I see is a bit more precipitation NW of the low. It's a good shift but still looks minor to me.

The pressure field doesn't look too different to me. Precip. field too. The placement of the L on the map can be misleading. The pressure field is like a topo map of terrain elevation with ridges and peaks. There isn't always one solitary summit. It looks like a minor shift to me... typical run to run variation. But I'm hoping for a positive surprise.

It's an unsexy dampening wave, but there's a good antecedent airmass. The high QPF signal on the GFS catches my eye. Recent runs were fairly wet as well.

There's a pretty decent QPF signal for the damping wave(s) Dec 24-26 on the GFS. Warm front pushing into entrenched cold air. The ECM and CMC have it too, but slightly drier. Kind of an under the radar threat, but it's something to watch.

The GFS has been throwing some pretty significant precipitation into the cold air Dec 24 - 26. ECM and CMC to a lesser extent, but with a similar idea. Wherever the warm front boundary sets up could get some sneaky good snows (and/or ice) around Christmas. Early guess would be CNY through CNE. Still way out there though.

12z GFS was pretty f'in close for EMA and esp EME. If that NS wave can dive south from ON and phase a little faster it could work out OK for parts of SNE. Not much time though. Can't have any set backs over the next few model cycles.

Nice little Xmas snowstorm on the 12z GFS just north of NYC. The GFS has been hinting at this kind of setup for several runs with limited support from other models. As shown it's an unlikely outcome, but something else to watch. As yesterday morning's short duration, moderate snowfall across parts of the LHV demonstrates, with cold air in place it doesn't take a perfect setup to get a beautiful wintry scene.

Drove through the Hudson Highlands this morning and there was an impressive snowcover around the West Point area. It must have really pounded early this morning. It wouldn't surprise me if there were a few spots up there that got 5 or 6 inches of snow.

Missed another one. No snow between Morristown and Montville. Well maybe a light dusting of snow/ice on the mulch. I think the CAD held the cold along and to the west of the terrain fall line. So snow was basically confined to west/north of I-287. Pretty well modeled actually except slightly more snow than ice compared to the progs... although observation yesterday from down in MD and PA suggested a slight overperformer with respect to ptype.

Weather model improve every year. Verification is significantly improved since 2004. Regional synoptics are well resolved out to 5 days, whereas 20 years ago that was fantasyland territory. Surprise storms are a rarity these days. Here are a couple of graphs of two verification parameters for the ECMWF. Other models may have improved more or less than these scored parameters indicate.