Chicago Storm

Nice bowing line segment about to push through the metro. A few smaller supercell like structures ahead of the line showing weak rotation at times as well. .

Re: SPC MD... Seems overzealous in the near term.

I didn’t even follow my advice. Got off work at 2, got home and haven’t left. 19z ILX sounding has a sizable cap, dry air aloft, among other things. Maybe the MCV will eventually do something in IN/OH, but IL is mostly done for. Attention then turns to the front in IA, but the issue there is the best threat will likely be confined to IA. Modified flow in off the backside of the first waves activity is feeding northwest, so the corridor of max potential out there is likely only in C IA. All in all, no bueno. .

Could have played both, that's my current plan. I'm off work from ORD at 2. Guessing by then somewhere in the Ottawa-Pontiac-Kankakee area might be in play with the MCV. Will chase around there for a while before hauling west to the IL/IA border. IKK to DVN can be done in 2hrs and 30mins, and with it light out till 9 now, it's doable.

The NAM has come in and reversed a bit of the bleeding that was happening on guidance last night. Would suggest a quality threat with the MCV from the Chicago metro into SW MI and N IN during the mid afternoon through early tonight. Then it has a sig environment in E IA and NW IL during the evening and into early tonight. The cloud cover and precip shield with the hurricane over IA this morning has been steadily fading, with a good deal of clearing already across MO and C/S IL. Everything seems to be on track for now.

90 ORD, 91 MDW, 93 RFD and 93 at ex home on today. 13 - RFD 13 - Ex home 9 - ORD 8 - MDW .

Could envision a moderate risk being needed if guidance up until this point remains consistent. .

MCV interacting with the warm front is easily better than just relying on the cold front. Guidance that has the MCV focused threat (Which is just about all guidance), does have a more back low level flow, in addition to a much stronger flow aloft (850/700/500). Soundings on guidance that have the MCV focused threat also look much better than those that do not. Additionally, the threat post MCV threat would still be quality, given you'd likely be dealing with a cold front and OFB intersection across E IA into N IL later.

It definitely has more potential with the MCV involved. .

90 ORD, 90 MDW, 94 RFD and 92 at ex home on Friday. 12 - RFD 12 - Ex home 8 - ORD 7 - MDW .

Sunday could be significant. Highly dependent on the evolution of an MCV tomorrow night in the Plains though. .

45-55MPH wind gusts at all metro area OBS sites, with the line of t’storms that moved through. .

It’s still 80° here at ORD as of 4AM. .

Severe threat was always iffy, but an MCS was pretty much expected.

93 RFD and 92 at ex home today. 11 - RFD 11 - Ex home 7 - ORD 6 - MDW

Tornado threat was always slim to none.

Easily overdone.

*Night. .

Yep, out west is golden.

one last chance bump for anyone that wants to get onboard, before it’s too late. .

Kind of two sided... If you want rain/storms, the GFS is your pick...If you want a shot of 2 days of heat, the Euro is your pick. .

falling dew points? .

How are the palms? .

Beware of the Jan-March total though, as it’s an unmanned station, thus winter/snow liquid was probably underreported. .

92 RFD and 91 at ex home today. 10 - RFD 10 - Ex home 7 - ORD 6 - MDW .