Chicago Storm

6z 3km NAM isn’t handling things well. .

Not surprisingly, the SPC’s NAM is much too far north and slow still with the current evolution, and is toss worthy. Luckily they have at least some sense of awareness, and have baby stepped south the past two outlook cycles. Edit: To add... The 6z NAM is about the size of Iowa off on the placement of the MCV currently. (And much too slow as I mentioned)

Not per say. The issue is that it will heavily dictate what happens the rest of the day... Including where development occurs in the afternoon, and the severity. .

SPC still clueless. No mention at all of the large/loose MCS that will originate in the Plains tonight, making it through MN/IA/WI the first half of the day. Instead all we get is this... Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along the front during the morning to the north and northeast of the surface low, from northeastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa. These storms should be elevated initially and are forecast to move east-northeastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. A surface-based convective cluster is expected to develop out of this activity.

SPC’s current SWOD2 is terrible. They really need to stop solely forecasting off the NAM. .

Environment overall is terrible, but enhanced LL SRH associated with the MCV is enough to do it. .

OMA had a peak gust of 96mph with the derecho last night, which is the highest report I’ve seen. 84mph in Grand Island was the second highest. Then that smaller MCS that came into W. NE had a peak of 88mph at Alliance. .

Don’t waste your time today. .

MDW the only noteworthy site in the area to go 90+ today, with 91. 16 - RFD 16 - Ex home 12 - MDW 11 - ORD .

91 today at ORD and ex home, with 92 at MDW and 93 at RFD. 16 - RFD 16 - Ex home 11 - ORD 11 - MDW .

i’ve got ocean front property in idaho i can sell you. copy and paste job though, forgot to delete the original text line.

more like miss well west. .

91 today at ORD, MDW and ex home, with 94 at RFD. Add in 90 at old ex home and 91 at RFD. 15 - RFD 15 - Ex home 10 - ORD 10 - MDW .

Add in 90 at old ex home and 91 at RFD. 14 - RFD 14 - Ex home 9 - ORD 9 - MDW .

Heard the same today, and stopped dead in my tracks. Its the worst sound for that very reason, and is a bit ahead of schedule. (Usually not until ~2 weeks after the 4th around here).

Top 10 list... 1. 76.2° - 1933 2. 75.8° - 1971 3. 75.7° - 1954 4. 74.3° - 2021 4. 74.3° - 1952 6. 74.2° - 2005 7. 74.0° - 2020 7. 74.0° - 2012 7. 74.0° - 1949 10. 73.9° - 1956

OP GFS was alone on an island, and the easy targets took the bait. .

has a history of bad warm season calls on the reg. .

Going to head down into C Illinois here shortly. Some of the activity in NE Illinois is rotating a bit, which is a good sign for further south. .

Can pull that corridor back down into C IL as it looks. .

Hopefully you’re racing down there, as there are several mini supercells currently along the I-72 corridor from SPI to CMI. Some are exhibiting weak/broad couplets as well. .

The I-72 corridor area is roughly the area to watch for now. Like I said though, it’s still a conditional kind of setup. .

Indeed...It’s another day I’ve been watching. Have discussed it a bit with others off the board, as it definitely has some potential.

I wouldn’t do it at that distance either...Too conditional and marginal. It’s a high risk - moderate reward setup. .

C IL has been recovering fairly well in the wake of early day rain, storms and cloud debris. Meanwhile, IN has been stocked in with scattered showers and cloud debris much of the day. Obviously IN could still very well go later (And probably will in some fashion), but on paper to me the C IL potential is greater given the recovery. .