Chicago Storm

a moment of silence for what could have been the Chicago area version of 8/10/20 .

Additionally, looks like the main storm collapsed right as it was entering the metro. So that’s another negative. .

Velo is collapsing right before getting to the LOT radar site, so those 70-110mph wind gusts are just off the surface...barely. Surface stable layer must still be in place. Needed this activity to roll through a bit later, say around noon, to have had better transport to the surface.

Holy ****... .

A hit for cyclone... .

Good catch with the HRDPS. That might be the only piece of guidance that has a handle on the situation... And as you mentioned, it has solid recovery and the area gets rolled this evening (in addition to a hit later this morning). SPC did upgrade into N IL to an ENH. I probably would have hedged safer for now and kept the ENH in WI/MI for now, with the ability to upgrade further for the 1630 SWODY1. .

That was as of then... As of now, parts of WI and MI look the be the only safe choices to include in an ENH risk. I’d hold off on any portions of IA/IL until a later time, if at all. .

Concern should increase as time goes on. The longer that complex festers down in the IA/IL/MO border area and the longer it takes for it to slide east of say the IL/IN border, the larger the hole in instability/DP/theta-e fields we’re going to see. That was very close to being an issue last evening actually. The fading complex(s) in MO yesterday ended up sending modified air northward, and our MCS barely outran it. There was a large hole in the same aforementioned fields, with DP’s in S IA/ N MO just south of the MCS having dropped from the upper 70’s/low 80’s to the mid/upper 60’s. .

Definitely looks like the 3rd consecutive ENH worthy looking day in a row, across portions of WI/IA/IL as it looks for now.

Better chance than today, that's for sure.

Very much so. And if not for that wave, today would have turned out much differently. The RAP did very well handling things.

Widespread reports of tree damage and power outages across NC and NE IL, as well as much of S WI. Ended up with winds around 60mph here. Didn't have a great shelf cloud, was mostly just a whales mouth.

As it always was going to be.

93 at ORD, RFD and ex home, with 94 at MDW today. 24 - Ex Home23 - RFD19 - MDW16 - ORD

SPC ENH risk looks perfectly placed across WI/IL... ...for once. (Thought I wasn't gonna take a shot, eh?)

Just for @Hoosier... 93/82/116 at ex home currently.

94/86/126 RPJ.

Some of the most significant combs I've seen this afternoon... IL: RPJ 93/85/123 BLV 91/85/120 ENL 91/82/113 SQI 90/82/112 AAA 91/82/112 IA: FFL 90/88/124 MXO 91/86/123 AWG 91/84/118 MLI 94/81/115 CWI 91/82/115 WI: PVB 91/83/114

The MCV/wave is now evident in the DSM region on vis sat. Have already had development on the southern flank well south of DSM, and now are seeing the real show getting going in NE IA, which should unzip down to I-80

You just beat me to it. Was just about to rag on the SPC (per usual) for saying there was no “overt” MCV. .

The problem I see just glancing at things is the lack of waves/disturbances. There is one out west tied to the KS MCS, but that’s it. The main trof is still deep in the N Plains. .

What a day... I'll have to figure out my exact tor count, but I think it was around 5 or so. The most notable tors were one near Creston, the strong one SE of Sycamore, and then a large multi-vortex bowl that ended up turning into a big rain-wrapped tor near Virgil. Will have pics and video up at some point int he next day or so.

Holy **** .

Have two tors on the day so far. Last one occluded into the rain. .

Na, I’d wait for the stuff more WNW and W to develop more. .