Chicago Storm

I believe they more-so meant it is a sign that the atmosphere is still somewhat stable to a degree, which meso-analysis supports (If you believe it). 0z DVN sounding coming in shows capping still in place as well, which is likely the reason the activity is struggling in the great environment across E IA. Edit: I'll add that obviously we are still destabilizing a bit more. .

Figures home would get hit when you're not even there.

can head up to the palm kingdom for that.

Seems evident that activity in WI has been struggling due to the modified/outflow environment that was advected north earlier...An add in maybe a bit of lingering capping as well.

Green County. Reasoning would have been... Better terrain, is still a quality environment as activity would work in.

If not for coming off a mid last night at ORD, I'd be sitting in Monroe, WI currently.

A well defined MCV was evident for a while on DVN/MKX/ILX/IWX.

That would be the outflow and modified air from the MCS down south. .

so you say. .

a moment of silence for what could have been the Chicago area version of 8/10/20 .

Additionally, looks like the main storm collapsed right as it was entering the metro. So that’s another negative. .

Velo is collapsing right before getting to the LOT radar site, so those 70-110mph wind gusts are just off the surface...barely. Surface stable layer must still be in place. Needed this activity to roll through a bit later, say around noon, to have had better transport to the surface.

Holy ****... .

A hit for cyclone... .

Good catch with the HRDPS. That might be the only piece of guidance that has a handle on the situation... And as you mentioned, it has solid recovery and the area gets rolled this evening (in addition to a hit later this morning). SPC did upgrade into N IL to an ENH. I probably would have hedged safer for now and kept the ENH in WI/MI for now, with the ability to upgrade further for the 1630 SWODY1. .

That was as of then... As of now, parts of WI and MI look the be the only safe choices to include in an ENH risk. I’d hold off on any portions of IA/IL until a later time, if at all. .

Concern should increase as time goes on. The longer that complex festers down in the IA/IL/MO border area and the longer it takes for it to slide east of say the IL/IN border, the larger the hole in instability/DP/theta-e fields we’re going to see. That was very close to being an issue last evening actually. The fading complex(s) in MO yesterday ended up sending modified air northward, and our MCS barely outran it. There was a large hole in the same aforementioned fields, with DP’s in S IA/ N MO just south of the MCS having dropped from the upper 70’s/low 80’s to the mid/upper 60’s. .

Definitely looks like the 3rd consecutive ENH worthy looking day in a row, across portions of WI/IA/IL as it looks for now.

Better chance than today, that's for sure.

Very much so. And if not for that wave, today would have turned out much differently. The RAP did very well handling things.

Widespread reports of tree damage and power outages across NC and NE IL, as well as much of S WI. Ended up with winds around 60mph here. Didn't have a great shelf cloud, was mostly just a whales mouth.

As it always was going to be.

93 at ORD, RFD and ex home, with 94 at MDW today. 24 - Ex Home23 - RFD19 - MDW16 - ORD

SPC ENH risk looks perfectly placed across WI/IL... ...for once. (Thought I wasn't gonna take a shot, eh?)

Just for @Hoosier... 93/82/116 at ex home currently.