Chicago Storm
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Everything posted by Chicago Storm
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Even though snow depth has been 0 out this way (ORD and home), there’s a lot of standing water around from a combo of melting drifted areas/piles and the ground starting to defrost a bit. Likely will see some minor, but widespread flood issues later. .
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12z NAM similar to 6z run. Noise level changes mostly. .
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the dream team is back. .
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0z GEM ENS mean .
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That's mostly sleet on the RAP, which it is trying to show as 3-6" of snow.
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0z GEM a slight bump NW and wetter.
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0z GFS bumping SE.
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0z RGEM holds main axis, but did expand precip NW.
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Frozen ground leading to runoff is one of the issues.
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0z NAM looks similar to 18z run. .
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are you really surprised though. .
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18z EPS mean. Bump SE and weaker. .
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Main wave is handled differently. It started off SE for western sub-forum, then corrects a bit NW for eastern sub-forum.
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18z Euro going SE again.
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18z GFS going to bump SE.
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18z RGEM bumped S/weaker. .
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Wave less amped and sheared faster. South it goes.
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12z EPS mean. Big bump SE and weaker.
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Add in the GEM ENS are down to only 4 of 20 members being more amped/NW.
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This reminds me of the classic NCEP vs foreign model guidance battles of many years past, which almost always ended in an NCEP failure.
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Pivotal is my choice for most data behind a paywall, but WxBell does offer much more.
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Very solid agreement between the OP Euro/GEM/RGEM, with the UKMET just a hair north of that consensus.
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Euro looks to bump SE. Edit: And weaker.
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Comparing all of guidance, the difference in the more NW NAM/GFS vs all other SE guidance is not tied to just one thing being different. The SE camp is different with all five pieces that are of focus for this storm system. That's fairly significant for being only ~36 hours out from the main storm system moving into the sub-forum.
