Chicago Storm

hoosier off to a bad thread start. .

Very likely a good chunk of the sub-forum does on Thur-Sat, behind the first system. The there’s the weekend clipper/hybrid go watch as well. .

The early starts are in October (Think 2019), and this isn’t October anymore. Next weekend we’re in mid-November already. .

First trace of snow at RFD this morning, only a few days off the average (Oct 31st). .

eventually .

Warmest Octobers On Record: 1. 64.3° - 1963 2. 62.2° - 1971 3. 62.1° - 1947 4. 61.9° - 1920 5. 61.4° - 1900 6. 60.8° - 1956 6. 60.8° - 1879 8. 59.8° - 1924 9. 59.7° - 2021 9. 59.7° - 1953

Looks like peak fall foliage color will be late this week. Definitely well behind schedule this year. .

The much hyped northern lights/auroras didn’t pan out last night. The CME was significantly delayed and much weaker than expected, not impacting earth until just before sunrise here and only to G1 storm levels. .

condolences. .

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I give you the first potential flake-age of the season... .

And we begin... This thread can be used for short/medium range discussion, and for those events that just don’t make the cut for being thread worthy.

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I’ve seen enough to suggest that at least part of the region will see their first flakes the first half of Nov with this upcoming cold shot. Maybe more than flakes for some areas? Shall see. Should also see the first widespread freeze (even hard freeze) for many areas as well. EPO is going negative and will be driving things for a bit. .

1.85" of rain at yesterday at ORD broke the record rainfall amount for the date of 1.63", which was set in 1918. .

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Nice pivot point across the LOT CWA this morning, very convective with some lightning/thunder at times. Add in the 35-55MPH wind gusts from last night and this morning NE/N/NW of the SLP as well. Definitely would be ripping +SN/+TSSN with near blizzard conditions another 1-3 months from now. There were gravity waves galore on KLOT, from yesterday morning through last night. Could visually see many cold season storm/winter storm like processes on KOMA/DSM/DVN/LOT from yesterday morning through this morning. .

Couplet of the event was definitely the one that traveled from St. Mary to Chester.

Several couplets, some with CC sigs, over the past 2 hours in SE MO and now into SW IL. .

Several couplets, some with CC sigs, over the past 2 hours in SE MO and now into SW IL. .

Would be a lot of rain. .

Needed to be in MO if chasing today. It is/was easily the best play. .

Based on how things look currently, that would be overzealous. We’ll see how things evolve.

Put these lists below together based off of +/-3F from average temps and +/-2" from average precip for DJF. Significantly warm/dry winters are very rare... Where as significantly warm/wet, cold/dry and cold/wet are a bit more common. Warm/Dry Winters 2001-2: 32.5F & 3.15" (Neutral) 1930-31: 32.4F & 1.60" Warm/Wet Winters 1982-83: 30.9F & 11.48" (Strong El Nino) 1959-60: 29.9.F & 8.89" 1907-08: 29.4F & 8.50" 1879-80: 35.2F & 8.91" 1875-76: 33.6F & 9.47" 1873-74: 30.2F & 9.42" Cold/Dry Winters 2014-15: 23.0F & 3.65" (Moderate El Nino) 1976-77: 19.0F & 2.30" (Moderate El Nino) 1962-63: 19.2F & 1.85" (Neutral) 1944-45: 23.3F & 3.08: 1919-20: 22.0F & 1.94" 1898-99: 21.7F & 3.29" 1874-75: 21.2F & 3.58" 1872-73: 20.5F & 3.25" Cold/Wet Winters 2008-09: 22.4F & 10.32" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1984-85: 21.9F & 7.86" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1917-18: 21.0F & 7.81" 1886-87: 22.5F & 9.99" 1884-85: 22.2F & 9.40" 1882-83: 21.9F & 8.47"

Solid surprise tornado outbreak across OH the past several hours, now working into PA too. Environment is lower end, but definitely supportive based on meso and short term analysis. It’s one of those enviro’s that will not work out 8/10 times, but the few times it does, production is efficient. .