Chicago Storm

Pretty much the same as it has... The quality of threat will be dependent on how much clearing is seen through the day. Still looks like best risk is across IL (maybe into NE MO/SE IA and W IN as well). .

I’m talking about the main threat, like 5% tor worthy threat (Not that it’s even worthy of that right now). That will be limited to IL. .

Tomorrow will be highly dependent on debris from tonights activity that moves across the region tomorrow. It won’t take much clearing to make for a favorable environment ahead of the low/front in IL, so it’ll have to be watched. IL is really the main focus, as that huge slight risk from the SPC is way overdone. .

Through the first 1/4 of the month, ORD has a temp departure of +10.8. With the very warm temps expected to continue into mid month, the next 1/4 of the month and combined first 1/2 departures should end up just as high. .

Like I said before, the typhoon recurve is really not doing much for us in this case. The pattern change (with the introduction of a -PNA) has been underway in a large scale for several days now. And as I mentioned before, there really isn’t going to be any sort of cool down. Temps will continue to be above to well above average around here for the foreseeable future (through mid-month). .

Out here in the suburbs there are still some scattered about, but a majority are gone. .

Departures are actually more meaningful and significant now than before. If you’re still putting up a +3.9° average departure for a given month, especially with the rise in averages over the years, it is more noteworthy. .

No idea why, but for some reason I entered 2010 for 1881. Has been fixed above. .

Warmest Septembers On Record: 1. 71.2° - 1931 2. 70.6° - 1908 3. 70.5° - 1960 4. 70.4° - 1971 5. 70.3° - 2021 5. 70.3° - 1925 7. 70.2° - 1978 7. 70.2° - 1881 9. 70.1° - 1906 10. 70.0° - 1939 10. 70.0° - 1921

First half of the month looks like a torch overall around here... Should build a fairly formidable positive departure through the 15th. Even with the ULL meandering around the SE next week, should still see average to above average temps around here. Beyond that, ENS have been coming more onboard the past several days regarding another push of warmer temperatures somewhere in the 8-14th timeframe. -PNA is slowly starting to develop, becoming more - with time. ENS support is high for a continuation through mid month, which supports the overall mild idea expected to continue. .

Ended up sneaking in another 90 at RFD on Monday (27th). Unless something historic/record breaking happens in October, these will be the final numbers.33 - Ex Home32 - RFD30 - MDW22 - ORD

Have noticed a few here the past week or so as well, though the majority are still warm season green. It hasn’t gotten too cool as of yet, so this might be more drought related than anything. (Especially since the usual early turning Ash trees are still green). .

That’s not always how it works... And it won’t be in this case re: cooler weather. .

only the less informed think that. .

that straight up trade proposal is looking lopsided now. .

The upcoming pattern is nothing of note .

Going to fall short in the metro/NE IL. HRRR was really never onboard, with a max of 86-88 for most of the area. Also, I wasn't really fond of the thermal ridge cooling and being shunted southward steadily through the day.

The sensor at ORD is in good working order, surprisingly. Gladstone site shows no significant error either. .

they're not an intelligent bunch there.

93 at RFD, 91 at ex home and 90 at MDW today. 33 - Ex Home 31 - RFD 30 - MDW 22 - ORD .

Today will likely be the last shot to hit 90°+ for the year across the area. ORD looks likely to fall short, but many other areas should hit. .

90 at RFD and 91 at ex home today. 32 - Ex Home 30 - RFD 29 - MDW 22 - ORD .

Catching up from the last several days...ORD calling way behind now. 90 at MDW on Sunday, and 90 at MDW, RFD and ex home on Monday. 31 - Ex Home 29 - RFD 29 - MDW 22 - ORD .

will trade you straight up for the return of money man or similar. .

For the second time recently, MDW snuck in a 90 yesterday.30 - Ex Home28 - RFD27 - MDW22 - ORD