Chicago Storm

There’s not much to discuss right now. The pattern has been and will continue to be only favorable for portions of MN/WI/MI, through mid-month. The only exception appears to be the storm potential centered around next Tuesday. A dip to a brief -EPO this weekend with a PV lobe briefly moving into Canada, coupled with the trough moving into the West in a favorable fashion via the -PNA, could lead to a thread the needle type widespread potential then. But outside of that, things still look DOA and more mild for most areas (Minus the areas I mentioned at the start). .

logged in and ready2b disappointed.

December is a nice time to start a new streak.

The Euro weeklies have not handled things very well this month, as they have been too cold and snowy for much of the sub-forum in their medium to long range. (The exception being northern sub-form in parts of MN/WI/MI, where things have panned out). The CFS has had its share of significant issues handling things as well.

One thing to watch for going forward is how ENS handle teleconnections. Long to even mid range ENS have kind of been not the best this season so far, with them breaking less + or less - as the short term approaches. .

Depends on how everything else pans out. Upcoming patterned paired with phase 7 would still be a MN/WI/MI/Canada pattern (N Plains too). .

Unless you live in MN/WI/MI/Canada, there should be significant concern/pause that this upcoming pattern will be a miss. The introduction of a -PNA will will bring an active pattern, but the NAO/AO will be of no help. Have to hope that the EPO can dip from time it time to help out, which is possible, but hard to bank on given the tendencies so far.

the time is coming... .

Pivotal will be getting 6z and 18z Euro data come January. .

interesting pattern changes coming up. on one end, can totally see how we get shut out through mid-december. .

For Alek... .

Had a few periods of snow around the area last night and then again today. The activity last night produced a non-measurable dusting here (T). ORD also had a T and 0.1” at RFD. .

Looks like the area should get in on some snow showers tonight into tomorrow, but any accumulation will be minimal..if there is any at all. Tomorrow is a bit more interesting on some guidance, as the lake could get involved wrapping in on the backside of the SLP. .

Had numerous snow showers/squalls today. A few had brief periods of heavier snow and non-measurable dustings. ORD had a T and RFD 0.1”

The new trend has been slower for those both to occur, along with a flatter/northern entry into the US. This leads to a delayed organization, and a miss for around here. .

Not really conservative... More along the lines of what overnight guidance suggests, with the good snows a bit north, along and north of the border. .

The evolution change at 500mb on guidance the past few days has been quite significant. We’re at the point where there’s actually phasing and the wave goes neutral or negative tilt.

Solid squalls (rain) in E IA this evening. .

And for the latter issue, it'll help that temps will be held in the 30's from later tonight on through the event.

I wouldn’t go there yet. .

Still have some time on this one, as the wave isn’t onshore until later Friday. .

couple inch events almost always get threads. probably was a bit too far out though. but tis the first potential, so. .

the young crop is thin. .

hoosier off to a bad thread start. .

Very likely a good chunk of the sub-forum does on Thur-Sat, behind the first system. The there’s the weekend clipper/hybrid go watch as well. .