Chicago Storm

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Nice pivot point across the LOT CWA this morning, very convective with some lightning/thunder at times. Add in the 35-55MPH wind gusts from last night and this morning NE/N/NW of the SLP as well. Definitely would be ripping +SN/+TSSN with near blizzard conditions another 1-3 months from now. There were gravity waves galore on KLOT, from yesterday morning through last night. Could visually see many cold season storm/winter storm like processes on KOMA/DSM/DVN/LOT from yesterday morning through this morning. .

Couplet of the event was definitely the one that traveled from St. Mary to Chester.

Several couplets, some with CC sigs, over the past 2 hours in SE MO and now into SW IL. .

Several couplets, some with CC sigs, over the past 2 hours in SE MO and now into SW IL. .

Would be a lot of rain. .

Needed to be in MO if chasing today. It is/was easily the best play. .

Based on how things look currently, that would be overzealous. We’ll see how things evolve.

Put these lists below together based off of +/-3F from average temps and +/-2" from average precip for DJF. Significantly warm/dry winters are very rare... Where as significantly warm/wet, cold/dry and cold/wet are a bit more common. Warm/Dry Winters 2001-2: 32.5F & 3.15" (Neutral) 1930-31: 32.4F & 1.60" Warm/Wet Winters 1982-83: 30.9F & 11.48" (Strong El Nino) 1959-60: 29.9.F & 8.89" 1907-08: 29.4F & 8.50" 1879-80: 35.2F & 8.91" 1875-76: 33.6F & 9.47" 1873-74: 30.2F & 9.42" Cold/Dry Winters 2014-15: 23.0F & 3.65" (Moderate El Nino) 1976-77: 19.0F & 2.30" (Moderate El Nino) 1962-63: 19.2F & 1.85" (Neutral) 1944-45: 23.3F & 3.08: 1919-20: 22.0F & 1.94" 1898-99: 21.7F & 3.29" 1874-75: 21.2F & 3.58" 1872-73: 20.5F & 3.25" Cold/Wet Winters 2008-09: 22.4F & 10.32" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1984-85: 21.9F & 7.86" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1917-18: 21.0F & 7.81" 1886-87: 22.5F & 9.99" 1884-85: 22.2F & 9.40" 1882-83: 21.9F & 8.47"

Solid surprise tornado outbreak across OH the past several hours, now working into PA too. Environment is lower end, but definitely supportive based on meso and short term analysis. It’s one of those enviro’s that will not work out 8/10 times, but the few times it does, production is efficient. .

WAW was/is the correct call. .

2011-12. .

forwarding info from the worst possible options around.

ORD was at +10.4 on the month through the 15th. what a cool down.

you will be missed. .

blue on the map over the lakes, cold and snow on the way. .

RIP. .

Unlikely. While there are a few similarities, overall it’s a totally different setup with clouds/precip even a bigger issues than yesterday as it looks currently. .

naso much.

Low temp of 70 yesterday at ORD broke the record high min temp for the date of 68, which was set in 1879.

Nice bag. I ended up not going out in the end, which was a reasonable decision. The isolated mini supercells were too few in quantity in the end, and only two produced. The QLCS has actually been the bigger story surprisingly, with numerous MV’s embedded in the line. However, there has been an overall lack of reports of any mode of severe associated with it.

Looks like a corridor of slight risk worthy activity will verify across C IL into E IN. Today performed about as good as it could given the situation. If there had been more clearing, which only would have been possible if that initial axis of rain/t’storms didn’t exist, it definitely would have been a more significant event. That SPC mega size 5% tor area from previous outlooks was still horrendous. .

Given how things have evolved over the past several hours, I don’t see it worth me going anymore. Will obviously continue to monitor things, especially more locally for later. .

Have ditched this idea. .

I'm still pondering heading down to W IL...We'll see.