Chicago Storm

because some of you really need it.

the nickel and dimers are preventing that possibility.

pull it together, ya'll. you'll survive, it's just snow.

Forgot to mention... The LE ended up being about 95% FZRA at ORD. Trees, grass, etc, were all coated with ~0.20" of ice. Chalk that up as a rare occurrence.

LES didn't bust across NE Illinois or SE Wisconsin. It was just that the guidance that was further west actually was correct for once. And that only happened because I said that usually doesn't happen. Reported snowfall totals of 2-6" are common across eastern Racine, Kenosha, and Lake Counties. For the parameters that were in place, that's really solid.

For the LES snow in N Illinois and SE Wisconsin, the surface convergence is actually east of where some guidance had it. However, the flow just off the surface (925mb/850mb) is hard NE, which is driving things westward.

LE *usually* verifies east of guidance, so we'll see...

For those in SE Wisconsin and NE Illinois... Don't sleep on the LES potential. While parameters aren't amazing, hi-res guidance is in full support in showing enough QPF for 6"+. So, while the parameters are not great, the production on shown on guidance is a big flag for me.

Don’t get attached to that one for next weekend. The setup is even more complex than the current one.

ORD ended up with 0.3" of snow with the disturbance last evening/night. Up to 5.6" of snow on the season.

live by the thread, die by the needle.

he's doing something i (and others) were yelled at for saying happens in every winter thread.

The July 15th derecho easily was the top weather event of the year around here, and it probably was the top weather event in general in many years.

understatement. however, locally, we’re ahead of where we were with both snow and cold compared to last winter at this point.

2024 finished as the warmest year on record for Chicago. Record Warmest Year's 1. 55.0° - 2024 2. 54.5° - 2012 2. 54.5° - 1921 4. 54.1° - 2023 5. 54.0° - 1931 6. 53.5° - 2021 7. 53.5° - 1998 8. 53.3° - 2020 9. 53.2° - 1953 10. 52.9° - 1954

2024 finished as the warmest year on record for Chicago. Record Warmest Year's 1. 55.0° - 2024 2. 54.5° - 2012 2. 54.5° - 1921 4. 54.1° - 2023 5. 54.0° - 1931 6. 53.5° - 2021 7. 53.5° - 1998 8. 53.3° - 2020 9. 53.2° - 1953 10. 52.9° - 1954

Key here is “potential”. Still a lot that can go right and a lot that can go wrong with this type of setup and still being 5 days out.

There’s been a big shift in the evolution of things aloft on most guidance over the past day or so. Gone is the several piece phasing across Canada down into the US, and it has been replaced by a far less phased gyre of a wave, which tracks more W-E across the Western and Central US, before running into a wall and rapidly shearing out. That’s the main reason you’re seeing a shift towards a weaker, earlier sheared, and further south tracking storm system. The thread is splitting when trying to thread the eye of the needle, and the current trends are not optimal.

i’m jonesing for a derecho on a 90° evening myself.

key point: i don't care what you think of me. but, since we're on that, it's clear that others share the same sentiment re: "michigan woe is me". so, thanks for enforcing that even more.

everyone's favorite past-time.

it has been as advertised.

that’s not how it works.

The lowest 2-3kft temp/dew point (Wet bulb) levels are into a sub-optimal range. The NAM is colder/drier in the lowest levels, thus has the most snow modeled (Easily).

Whether or not there’s a storm system in the timeframe in question, that’s happening either way after. This is a one and done shot.