The new trend has been slower for those both to occur, along with a flatter/northern entry into the US. This leads to a delayed organization, and a miss for around here. .
The evolution change at 500mb on guidance the past few days has been quite significant. We’re at the point where there’s actually phasing and the wave goes neutral or negative tilt.
The much hyped northern lights/auroras didn’t pan out last night. The CME was significantly delayed and much weaker than expected, not impacting earth until just before sunrise here and only to G1 storm levels. .
I’ve seen enough to suggest that at least part of the region will see their first flakes the first half of Nov with this upcoming cold shot. Maybe more than flakes for some areas? Shall see. Should also see the first widespread freeze (even hard freeze) for many areas as well. EPO is going negative and will be driving things for a bit. .