Chicago Storm

Your expectations are unrealistic. November just ended, and it was a top 20 snowy November for Detroit…which featured a 4”+ event. .

Repost from several days back, but we are about to enter the top 10… .

The signal is strong, and is well supported by ENS, longer range guidance and teleconnections. As it stands now, the pattern through mid-month is not supportive for anything more than maybe a thread the needle type setup or so. …But we’ve already seen one of those vanish for early this upcoming week.

-PNA/+EPO/+NAO/+AO will do that to ya. .

Pretty sure SE. MI has already had two snow events, and the Detroit area is already up to 6-8” on the season through the end of November. .

An ENS temp plot 240hrs out is useless. You’d need to look at the temp anomaly plot. .

i’m not saying that it will, but definitely not out of the cards.

Driest Novembers On Record: 1. 0.31” - 1904 2. 0.33” - 1914 3. 0.34” - 1903 4. 0.44” - 1999 5. 0.55” - 1976 6. 0.56” - 1917 7. 0.68” - 1933 8. 0.71” - 2021 9. 0.75” - 1875 10. 0.83” - 1878 Warmest Falls On Record: 1. 60.0° - 1931 2. 59.1° - 1963 3. 58.2° - 1971 4. 57.8° - 2016 5. 57.2° - 1953 5. 57.2° - 1922 7. 57.1° - 1920 8. 56.8° - 2021 8. 56.8° - 1927 8. 56.8° - 1914 .

I wouldn’t go there yet. .

not me, tsnow matty did. happened about a year and a half ago.

that is a classic terrible accuwx map. .

you’re not part of this sub-forum anymore, being in denver and all. the golden days are over. probably should wait for the to actually go - too for your mountain snow.

There’s not much to discuss right now. The pattern has been and will continue to be only favorable for portions of MN/WI/MI, through mid-month. The only exception appears to be the storm potential centered around next Tuesday. A dip to a brief -EPO this weekend with a PV lobe briefly moving into Canada, coupled with the trough moving into the West in a favorable fashion via the -PNA, could lead to a thread the needle type widespread potential then. But outside of that, things still look DOA and more mild for most areas (Minus the areas I mentioned at the start). .

logged in and ready2b disappointed.

December is a nice time to start a new streak.

The Euro weeklies have not handled things very well this month, as they have been too cold and snowy for much of the sub-forum in their medium to long range. (The exception being northern sub-form in parts of MN/WI/MI, where things have panned out). The CFS has had its share of significant issues handling things as well.

One thing to watch for going forward is how ENS handle teleconnections. Long to even mid range ENS have kind of been not the best this season so far, with them breaking less + or less - as the short term approaches. .

Depends on how everything else pans out. Upcoming patterned paired with phase 7 would still be a MN/WI/MI/Canada pattern (N Plains too). .

Unless you live in MN/WI/MI/Canada, there should be significant concern/pause that this upcoming pattern will be a miss. The introduction of a -PNA will will bring an active pattern, but the NAO/AO will be of no help. Have to hope that the EPO can dip from time it time to help out, which is possible, but hard to bank on given the tendencies so far.

the time is coming... .

Pivotal will be getting 6z and 18z Euro data come January. .

interesting pattern changes coming up. on one end, can totally see how we get shut out through mid-december. .

For Alek... .

Had a few periods of snow around the area last night and then again today. The activity last night produced a non-measurable dusting here (T). ORD also had a T and 0.1” at RFD. .

Looks like the area should get in on some snow showers tonight into tomorrow, but any accumulation will be minimal..if there is any at all. Tomorrow is a bit more interesting on some guidance, as the lake could get involved wrapping in on the backside of the SLP. .