Chicago Storm

that was me about a day or so ago. here's the updated one...

The next pattern shift looking likely to occur next weekend (Weekend of 18/19th).

The Euro continues to look the most significant severe weather wise, even well up into IL/IN. .

Let’s talk December 70°’s… They’re very rare, only having happened three times on record. In addition, it has never been achieved after December 3rd. 71° - 12/2/1982 71° - 12/3/1970 70° - 12/3/2012 Note: There has never been a 70°+ temp in winter between 12/4 and 2/10.

tth is the preferred answer. .

No, that’s not what that means. 150 years worth of December days is 4,650 days. If only 77 December days during that 150 years have hit 60°+, only an extremely small amount of December days actually get into the 60°’s. .

Might be about time to break out some stats today. .

ready2torch. .

GFS has a bomb in the N Plains next week. .

he lives. .

maybe it’ll do wonders for denver. .

12z Euro continues its own trend of a snowstorm on the north side and sig severe on the south side of that Fri/Sat storm system. .

error on your part there, i’m a summer/warm season guy. .

clearly tth now. .

0.7” ORD and 2.3” RFD. .

just another stat, and remember… nothing abnormal about it. .

beavis lives in a world of his own. .

i’ve been told this isn’t abnormal, nothing to see here. .

Likely would be some sort of severe potential with it, just glancing at a few things. .

temperature wise, you’re correct in that it hasn’t been too abnormal as of yet. november had a -1.0° temperature departure. december obviously has started mild, with a +9.4° departure over the first 5 days. that will get kicked down over the next few days, before going back up once again. so we’ll see how that goes with time. overall so far it has been cooler east and warmer west since early november. what is abnormal is snowfall and precipitation. things have been fairly dry and snow-less across a large portion of the region thus far since early november. .

if you’ve been following for that long, you know the increased model struggles the past few years, as well as the difficulty to get into and/or hold a favorable pattern in the winter. and in the case of the current situation, the pattern is not supportive of anything more than a thread the needle situation. .

anyone that has done that probably should stop talking about the long term, because clearly they don’t know what they’re talking about. we have been in about three or so different patterns across november and now into december, and none have them ever looked favorable for anywhere other than MN/WI/MI. .

does this mean what happens after tuesday is the gradual step up towards spring? .

some of you are in denial. .

The shift towards positive tilt junk has been significant the last day or two. So unless that potential comes back, or Thursdays event up north in MN/WI/MI ends up further south, it might be about time to ring the futility bells. .