Chicago Storm

do you want to live? .

I see no use in getting bent out of shape regarding things, given the whole system is flawed… -EF scale -Damage indicators -What can/can’t be used for ratings -NWS office issues* *By this I mean there are several issues within the NWS that factor in, such as… ~Staffing issues at times leading to not all potential tornadoes being survey, or at least not all potential tornadoes being surveyed in a proper manner. ~Particular mets within certain offices that do not care whether or not all potential tornadoes are surveyed, or at least do not care about the substantial amount of QLCS spin-ups that occur. ~Offices that are too worried about verification scores, instead of getting the surveyed information correct. .

Bump for a second time… This pattern will be -PNA/-AO/-NAO, with a neutral to slightly -EPO. Shaping up to be a gradient pattern, which could be good or bad depending on your location. Obviously MN/WI/MI should be a lock in that pattern, with areas further south having the ability to cash quite well in or swing and miss big (In terms of cold/snow). In other words, good luck. .

Snow accum chances for tonight continue to decrease for ORD and around here. If we make it past tonight, the next window to watch would be around Christmas. Obviously by that time we will have broken the record, and would just be extending it further.

.

Definitely wouldn’t follow any camp that includes the HRRR, that’s for sure, whether it’s shows snow or not. It has been especially bad in its long range the past several events.

.

Definitely did. Looks like some smoke from CO/KS/OK/TX wildfires made it up here. .

ORD with a peak wind gust of 66MPH recently. .

70MPH IOW.

66MPH at CID.

Peak wind gusts thus far of 51MPH at ORD and MDW, and 53MPH at RFD. .

DVN already answered that question, with a severe for the line entering W IL.

Noticing a slow but steady downtrend in activity now, across IA and MO. .

.

That should have occurred at the 20z outlook, or even the intermediate update the just recently issued at the latest.

For anyone following the information Tim Marshall has been providing the past few days, a non-EF-5 rating should not come as a surprise. .

.

.

.

Anything forming ahead of the line was never really in the cards. It was always going to be a line of mixed mode embedded supercells and QLCS. .

Can’t figure out why the SPC didn’t pull the MOD risk back southwest to the current location of ongoing activity in NE. Also probably could have pulled the ENH southward into KS/MO. Alsooo, with this update you can argue for the need of a high risk for wind (the coveted 60% hatched), given how things are unfolding. .

Nice supercell structure embedded in the line… .

Storm motion has nothing to do with watch issuance. .

It’s begins… .