Chicago Storm

it didn’t cross my mind to look through the 7th (or beyond) for a stat on a graphic that was shown on the 6th. so yes, they were incorrect. the only thing dense around here has been your posting.

It's actually wayyy off. The correct answer is, this is the least total snowfall through Feb 6th in a season since 9.2" through Feb 6th during the 2012/13 season.

We're sliding into probably one of the more complex large scale weather patterns that we've seen in quite a while.

0.15" of ice accumulation at ORD yesterday evening and last night. There was a solid glaze+ on all surfaces.

This looks like a fairly minor "event" around here... Probably a glaze of ice and dusting of snow/sleet/ice pellets. The Euro was most bullish for a while, but then collapsed to the rest of guidance.

kind of already do have one...

That last part of this is important. The battle appears to be indeed coming. The look has transitioned from long range to the mid range, and soon to be short range.

Final storm rainfall total of 1.75" at ORD. Prior to this event, Chicago/ORD was on the brink of a top 5 dry January on record.

long range “forecasting” for an entire winter or cold season is essentially just long range guessing. if you’re right, you got lucky. if you’re wrong, you were destined to be anyway. these long range winter forecasts that are issued by many in the fall are the most pointless kind of “forecasting” there is. stick with getting the short term correct and worry less about the super long term.

enter the crowd: “just think if this were snow”.

super-soaker.

The warm anomaly correlation relaxes, but it still is there a bit. Things this winter have not been MJO dominated, however, due to the constant re-charge of cold in Canada...Which is a big result of the frequent ridging around/near AK and vicinity (Among other things). Instead, it has sort of been a mix of cooperation between the two and also a battle...with the battle upcoming.

The Chicago high temp record for tomorrow is an unimpressive/low hanging fruit record. It is the only record after the 22nd that is not 60+.

Breezy conditions the past few days... ORD had a peak wind gust of 40MPH on Monday and 43MPH yesterday.

that’s far from the case. originally, it looked like we may transition into a more favorable pattern in mid-january. that didn’t happen, and the can has gotten kicked down the road…and that continues to be the case. the performance of longer range guidance has been not been the best this winter.

0.7" of snow at ORD yesterday/last night with the clipper that moved through. The seasonal snowfall total is up to 9.9".

i would expect that. but you’re essentially just wanting guidance to show something for more than a run or two and more consistently just for the hell of it. and i get that… it’s because it has been zzz for most of you wanting something bigger and more interesting. guidance will show something consistently when there’s a realistic threat. you mentioned the recent gulf coast winter storm. it was indeed shown for days and days out, as it was a legitimate potential, as we’ve seen. the thread-y winter storm at the beginning of the month was shown for days and days out as well, as it was also obviously a real threat. patience is a-virtue.

so, you'd rather op guidance show something for a bunch of runs, only to have it vanish towards the end because it wasn't realistic?

The earlier day stuff was bonus material. The main round is incoming now.

we need a triple phaser for ya.

ya'll are focusing on op guidance wayyy to much. ENS have had issues, but they're always the way to go more than a few days out.

One day, however, the CWO (contract weather observer) program will be gone. And that day is getting closer as we move along, better back-ground technology is developed, and they is more push-back support. Regarding the former issue, the FAA would most definitely put out whatever OBS they would want to satisfy their operational needs. You don't know how often we get calls from tower personal (both FAA and airlines) that want us to adjust OBS because "they aren't seeing that weather anymore".

i should have flown my palm down there for this winter storm. it could have taught local palms how to prepare for and tolerate the conditions.

https://x.com/MaxTsaparis/status/1881762156640878868