Chicago Storm

Significant meso-low moving from Lake Michigan into SW MI. .

i’ve seen this before. .

bump. the time has come.

There’s a lot of spread in the ENS. .

Correct, the northern wave rotating around the PV in Canada has trended slower/south/a bit more amped. .

It would have a negative impact in terms of potential, and is about one of three reasons why there’s been a shift south/weaker overall in guidance the past day or two. .

Placement, not potential* .

While not a carbon copy, there are a lot of similarities to the early Feb winter storm (GHD3). Many of the same moving pieces will be in place and a factor, and how they interact will obviously dictate how things progress. Based on how things look at face value on guidance as of now, it would not be surprising if this ended up close to where GHD3 hit. Shall see how things evolve over the coming days though. Really wouldn’t get invested in things until tomorrow or more-so Monday. .

there really has been not be any trend per say. other than it being a winter that has overall favored portions of MN/WI/MI in our sub-forum. .

definitely not the winter trend. .

? .

if you insist. .

que it up. .

As depicted right now, it’s definitely not a wrapped up bomb. .

0.5” ORD and 0.2” RFD with the snow last night. .

can’t even call it a mini-thump. .

Most definitely. .

we’re pretty much moving into mid-february now, and this is about the time of year many start looking to jump into spring. nothing new.

was more directed towards the previous comment from @IWXwx.

not even a week removed from a dog, already getting the zzz’s again. .

As mentioned in the February thread, the pattern we are now is fairly zzz overall. Ridging around the West Coast and PV location between Greenland and the Hudson during this stretch. Mostly a duster clipper pattern for most, though maybe a bit more at times (See late week clipper), though more MN/WI/MI favored then. A to BA temperature wise for most as well. Around or just after Valentines Day is the time to watch for our next significant pattern shift. It's looking increasingly likely that we will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern, with still some question on the EPO (+ or neutral seems most likely). Also it looks like the PV will still be persistent just north of the Hudson up in Canada. That pattern would be favorable for a shift back to an active pattern, with quality storm potential (Rain & snow). Not surprisingly some differences on how the EPS and GEFS are handling the pattern. The EPS are further west with the mean trough axis, which would set up for potential for more mild temp pushes and rainer potential as well. The GEFS are further east with the mean trough axis, and would favor a cooler scenario temp wise with more snow chances for more as well. We'll have to see if there's a trend towards either solution this week,

You have to realize we're quickly approaching mid-February already. On top of that, the pattern we're in now is mostly a duster clipper pattern, unless up in portions of MN/WI/MI where it could be better at times.

0.5” of snow at ORD with the duster clipper last evening. .

Lake effect snow, fire effect snow and aircraft effect snow...