Chicago Storm
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This reminds me of the classic NCEP vs foreign model guidance battles of many years past, which almost always ended in an NCEP failure.
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Pivotal is my choice for most data behind a paywall, but WxBell does offer much more.
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Very solid agreement between the OP Euro/GEM/RGEM, with the UKMET just a hair north of that consensus.
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Euro looks to bump SE. Edit: And weaker.
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Comparing all of guidance, the difference in the more NW NAM/GFS vs all other SE guidance is not tied to just one thing being different. The SE camp is different with all five pieces that are of focus for this storm system. That's fairly significant for being only ~36 hours out from the main storm system moving into the sub-forum.
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Interestingly enough, the poorly performing 12z UKMET bumped NW and is now further N than the Euro.
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12z GEFS mean .
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12z GEM holds S. .
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awesome. .
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Neither of them are more accurate. A middle ground approach is always best when dealing with favorable ratios. .
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12z RGEM bump S and weaker. .
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12z NAM bumping NW. .
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6z EPS mean .
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Indeed there are solid lapse rates shown and elevated cape correctly positioned as well. Another thing you like to see are high omega values, especially located within the snow growth zone for efficient snow production as well. There’s a nice overlap in this case. .
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Differences in the NW and SE solutions continues to revolve around the lead wave moving across Canada Tue/Wed and also a wave that stalls over the Northern Rockies and the eventual progression of it. All of the above is fully onshore and sampled. .
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0z GEFS mean
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Browsing through NAM soundings, and they are supportive of TSSN potential.
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0z GEM will remain well south.
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Bump NW.
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GFS still not backing down.
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Not so much… .
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Not really. They almost always mimic the previous NAM run. In this case the 18z NAM has bumped SE, so it was a given the 21z SREF would as well. Would expect the 3z SREF to bump back NW. .
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The former. Crusher. Edit: Both. Can see how it shears quicker heading into the Great Lakes.
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NAM will either be north, or end up going big earlier and shearing out faster.
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We’ll have to watch that trend. It was something that was seen with GHD3 in the days leading up to it. Guidance overcorrected in that case, and then ended up coming back faster once again. The other potential would obviously be for it to keep trending slower, which then could cause other issues .
