Chicago Storm
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I give you the NCEP trash known as the GFS...
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you need to work on your hits. .
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12z GFs still coming back to reality with another bump SE. .
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Even though snow depth has been 0 out this way (ORD and home), there’s a lot of standing water around from a combo of melting drifted areas/piles and the ground starting to defrost a bit. Likely will see some minor, but widespread flood issues later. .
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12z NAM similar to 6z run. Noise level changes mostly. .
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the dream team is back. .
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0z GEM ENS mean .
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That's mostly sleet on the RAP, which it is trying to show as 3-6" of snow.
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0z GEM a slight bump NW and wetter.
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0z GFS bumping SE.
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0z RGEM holds main axis, but did expand precip NW.
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Frozen ground leading to runoff is one of the issues.
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0z NAM looks similar to 18z run. .
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are you really surprised though. .
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18z EPS mean. Bump SE and weaker. .
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Main wave is handled differently. It started off SE for western sub-forum, then corrects a bit NW for eastern sub-forum.
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18z Euro going SE again.
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18z GFS going to bump SE.
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18z RGEM bumped S/weaker. .
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Wave less amped and sheared faster. South it goes.
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12z EPS mean. Big bump SE and weaker.
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Add in the GEM ENS are down to only 4 of 20 members being more amped/NW.
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This reminds me of the classic NCEP vs foreign model guidance battles of many years past, which almost always ended in an NCEP failure.
