Chicago Storm

Looks like a 1-2”-er that’s melting while it falls. .

GFS already caved north. .

but is it stat padding? march averages 5.5” of snow at ORD. and if you think about it, all snow is technically ‘stat padding’. .

i wasn’t interested. .

Well, we have only a few on the board that live out that way. And on top of that, it looks lower end overall as of now. SPC must be really jonesing to have gone 15% 5 days out. .

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Correction has been completed. .

A very significant disruption of the SPV is expected from now through early to mid March. During this time a few things look likely to happen… First off the SPV will be split, with one half fading shortly thereafter. Beyond that point, the leftover half of the SPV, in a weaker state, centers near the North Pole with significant SW over North America. .

The next pattern shift as expected, albeit brief, has already occurred and will be around through the middle of this upcoming week. The mean trough that had been in place out in the West with the pattern we just exited has lifted, and will be more Ontatio/Quabec/Northern Great Lakes/Northeast based for this short period of time. This is leading to a short period of near A temps (Cooler north/mild south) and less active conditions. The biggest change from my previous post regarding this short period is, ENS guidance had backed off on how cold it would be. Beyond that, there will be yet another significant pattern shift, which will occur in two stages. The first stage appears to be brief once again, occurring from the middle of this upcoming week and continuing through later the first weekend of March or perhaps early into the first full week of March. This pattern will allow for a bigger push of mild temps and a more active storm pattern to return (Rainer potential high). This first stage of the pattern shift will be possible in part due to a +AO/+NAO/+EPO/+PNA/+WPO combo spike, with this ridge then collapsing eastward over the CONUS. The second stage of the main pattern shift from above appears as though it will be longer lasting. We will shift into a +AO/+NAO/-EPO/-WPO/-PNA pattern. This pattern will feature a mean trough that will sit in the middle of the country, leading to the return to a much more active storm pattern once again. Regarding temps, there will be the potential for cool/cold shots given ENS trough position and teleconnections...Odds are it might end up being a cold NW/mild SE situation across the sub-forum, which would obviously introduce the opportunity for rainers and snows depending on location. Should be a pattern that favors severe weather opportunities in the Dixie/SE/TNV as well.

Final snowfall totals of 3.1” ORD, 2.7” MDW, 1.6” RFD and 2.0” at home. .

Lake enhancement showing up well across SE WI and NE IL. Much of it is making it about two counties inland, though there have been some returns as far inland as Janesville. .

yea…everything is going just about as expected, unless you believed the previously overdone guidance.

the GFS with another one… .

that's what beavis' dreams are of right there.

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At this point we’re definitely not looking at sig ice in the suburbs, and quite likely not in NE IL either. The HRRR struggles with the effects of lake ice and tries to alter the environment. It’s not realistic. .

i’m not saying it’ll be right, but that is not a warm look at that time. things are up and down, but as a whole overall are colder/cooler as depicted currently, with 3 different patterns through mid march.

you’ve had some rough calls this season, might be best to sit the rest out. .

Peak wind gusts Friday afternoon-early Saturday morning of 47MPH ORD, 49MPH MDW and 53MPH RFD (Including snow squall). Peak wind gusts today of 47MPH ORD, 45MPH MDW and 49MPH RFD.

3.4" of snow on the season, and running -21.9" for the season.

You want to see rapid snow melt...Check out the vis sat loop since sunrise today across the region and increase loop speed a bit.

First winter derecho that I can recall. .

if you insist. .

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