Jump to content

Chicago Storm

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    18,587

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Chicago Storm

  1. Chicago Storm
    best climo.
  2. Chicago Storm
    a late morning/midday severe mcs is now considered 'debris clouds', that's a new one. and by the way, dayton only averages 16 days that are 90+ a year. there have been 11 this year so far, with more summer to go.
  3. Chicago Storm
    I'm guessing it was a combination of the residual cold pool/modified airmass from the Fri night/Sat activity having finally been eroded, and a brief period of increased advection ahead of the MCS/MVC in C/S WI and N IL.
  4. Chicago Storm
    Outside of Friday, it didn't make it into the 90's across the area for the rest of the weekend. High temps from Friday are below... 92 MDW 91 ORD 91 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 21 - MDW17 - RFD16 - Ex-Home13 - Current Home13 - ORD
  5. Chicago Storm
    Living and dying by the HRRR too much. This is how it goes with hot start CAMS. Regarding the latter portion, there is a fair amount of capping across IA. The t’storm that you referenced that was previously in N IA was undercut by surging outflow from the main cluster moving through the LSE area.
  6. Chicago Storm
    Seems like a good call to have stayed enhanced, at least for now. There’s a lot of modified air over S WI/N IL/N IN/S MI, with an OFB pushing west and reinforcing in across SW WI and NW IL. We’ll see how it shakes out with time, but it could mean the maximized potential is in a small corridor across portions of NE IA/S WI/N IL.
  7. Chicago Storm
    I’m out camping in NW IL this weekend, at White Pines State Park (Near Oregon, IL). Didn’t see the same extent of training activity that the Chicago metro area did overnight/this morning, but did end up in a severe t’storm warning around 4:15AM with a stronger t’storm, and had a few other smaller t’storms nearby earlier this morning. The aforementioned severe t’storm produced 50-60MPH winds, marble size hail and a great light show.
  8. Chicago Storm
    Had a brief radar sig in southern portions of Naperville.
  9. Chicago Storm
    Final high temps for Thursday across the area... 94 MDW 92 ORD 91 RFD 92 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 20 - MDW17 - RFD15 - Ex-Home13 - Current Home12 - ORD
  10. Chicago Storm
    That’s a good one. I’d go with the ORD option, just because it’s the easier of the two. Now if you move the bars to 103 STL and 95 ORD, the STL option would be my pick.
  11. Chicago Storm
    This is the least surprising possibility of the year.
  12. Chicago Storm
    Supercell over Lake Co has had a bit of loose rotation, and is about to move out over the lake.
  13. Chicago Storm
    Re: Temps yesterday under-performing... Looks like it was due to a combination of DP's being a few degrees higher, and a change in mixing depths. DVN soundings show mixing was deeper there on Monday compared to yesterday.
  14. Chicago Storm
    KPWA (OKC Wiley Post Airport) is still sitting at 100 as of 11PM.
  15. Chicago Storm
    Those ended up being the final numbers for today. Yesterday it was only MDW/PWK/UGN (lol) to hit 90+, and today it was only MDW/ORD/PWK/UGN (lol) to do it. 90°+ day tally for the year... 19 - MDW16 - RFD14 - Ex-Home12 - Current Home11 - ORD
  16. Chicago Storm
    It is, but with a lot of convection around as well.
  17. Chicago Storm
    No shot at option #1, which isn’t fully what the 12z Euro shows anyway.
  18. Chicago Storm
    The Fri-Sun timeframe is looking interesting as we get closer. Definitely better ridge placement compared to the 4th of July week period, which likely will help things a bit.
  19. Chicago Storm
    MDW the only location of note to get over 90 today, with a high of 91. 90°+ day tally for the year... 18 - MDW16 - RFD14 - Ex-Home12 - Current Home10 - ORD
  20. Chicago Storm
    I'm guessing you'll adjust a bit given what both locations are topping out at today.
  21. Chicago Storm
    And we already have an answer… Currently MDW is ahead of ORD by 4°, and ahead of all other metro sites by 3-7°.
  22. Chicago Storm
    A lot of over-mixing there. The GFS has done horribly in the short range with that across the Plains.
  23. Chicago Storm
    It hit 103 in STL today. 3rd 100+ day of the year.
  24. Chicago Storm
    I somehow missed that gem. LOT doesn’t even have precip in the grids right now, let alone t’storms. Based on current guidance, that’s the way to go for now. I was once told by someone well known that the SPC is “The best at what they do”. Kind of comical, really.
  25. Chicago Storm
    Not surprising, odds were always against it. Euro, NAM and 3km NAM did especially bad. Just 18-24 hours ago they had the SLP moving from WI down into N IL, and instead it’s well west, dropping south between OMA and DSM. HRRR and other guidance score a win with this one.
×
×
  • Create New...