Chicago Storm

GEFS>GFS.

I was wondering when some of you would start mentioning the positive flip we’re going to see.

This makes it the second consecutive year that there’s been a tornado within 15 minutes of home.

Ended up on the supercell t'storm near Dwight, IL yesterday afternoon. It did have a lowering for a while, and also had some visual rotation for a while (In addition to a couplet on radar as well). However, it never did tighten up and strengthen enough to produce a tornado. A few pictures of this t'storm are below. Ended up messing around with a few other severe t'storms after the aforementioned initial intercept, but did not end up with anything noteworthy.

Significant capping still in place on the 18z ILX sounding.

Personally, if I go when I leave ORD at 2PM, it’ll be somewhere between Rochelle and Bloomington. Maybe take the middle with LaSalle.

Kind of getting the feeling that even though we are seeing a nice wedge of clearing/destabilization/warming/moisture return, this still may not perform. We’ll see if it’s a mirage/overthinking or not soon. SPC held on to slight risk with the updated SWODY1, which I agree with.

Probably the best case scenario to start the morning in one of these situations… Fading convection is already to the I-39 corridor the length of Illinois, with clearing taking place behind this activity from the DVN CWA down into MO.

One of the many times we have this issue each season. If that morning complex can clear out quick enough and clearing can occur in its wake for a while, the ceiling *could* be an enhanced risk worthy day. But at this point given 8/10 times things don't work out and also taking into account the present look of guidance, I'd roll with a marginal risk at this point to start.

At this point tomorrow looks like a marginal risk worthy for portions of WI/IL/MI/IN/KY.

No shot. What they’re depicting is nearly impossible.

Very good points. Kind of interesting how that works, but my guess it has to do with timing of systems ejecting out from the Inter-Mountain West and into the Plains. Such as, if the Mountainous region in the West was further east, maybe that would have a chain reaction effect for bigger synoptic events in your area.

Topped out at 83 at ORD, 85 at MDW and 82 at RFD today. Warmest temps and first 80°+ day since early last October.

You’re not missing anything at least. Tomorrow is as marginal as it gets. Activity from Friday might end up being better.

Barely eek-ed out a W.

70 seems like a stretch today. Edit: Both out your way and out this way.

Snowfall totals of 0.2” ORD, 0.9” RFD and 0.7” at home last night/this morning.

Better get used to it, cause sustained deep spring conditions aren’t happening any time soon.

As mentioned above, our next change is on tap for this week. A deeper trough is expected to move through the Western and Central US. This is still expected to bring a push of warmer temps to the Central/Eastern US and some severe potential to the Central US, later this week on into this next weekend. The bad news is this pattern adjustment is part of a much larger overall shift, one that will bring back continued troughing to the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast starting early next week (Final week of April)…and will likely continue as we flip the calendar into May. This will be the second time this spring that we’ve seen a notable -NAO, after not having one almost the whole winter. For those looking for sustained deep spring-like warmth and severe chances, it still isn’t happening any time soon.

Precip started as snow here at home about 30 minutes ago, and is coming down at a pretty good clip currently.

A dusting to 2” on tap for the area tonight/early tomorrow morning.

No slack given. If you’re not up to the challenge, you shouldn’t be broadcasting.

Region 8 is calling a shelf cloud a wall cloud right now. Toss anything they’re saying.

Have yet to see any visual evidence of this apparent tornado. No CC sig on the storm either. To me it looks like a significant RFD push, with big damaging wind/hail and maybe a brief spin-up.