Chicago Storm

doa for different reasons. MKE is 63/59 and about to get rolled.

The dual MCV’s are a lost cause at this point.

Looks like activity will generally be limited to MI/NE IN/OH, with development that occurs much later today. The pair of MCV’s that have been of focus are poorly timed and will have ended up tracking on an unfavorable trajectory to be useful. Would expect to see some fairly significant adjustments in the next two SPC SWODY1 updates.

Not in our sub-forum, but there was a heat-burst with the small MCS/MCV in KS not too long ago. Oakley, KS (KOEL) peaked at 94/29 with a 56MPH wind gust.

There is not one CAM that has a handle on the situation as of the 0z runs.

CAMS are struggling significantly right now, especially the 3KM NAM.

And if there is not an MCS tomorrow.

I’ll go with a peak of 96 ORD and 98 MDW for this period. However, if any appreciable convective activity occurs across the area on Monday, I’ll knock that back to 94 ORD and 96 MDW.

monday is your one and only shot.

The only one that has a shot to me is Wednesday’s record high, which as you mention is “only” 95°.

Prior to today I would have said it would be dry, but more recent guidance is trying to resolve an MCV that originates from Front Range convection on Sunday. This MCV then moves east and rounds the ridge into the area for Monday. That solution is likely the only way we see much of anything in the area.

the deed has been done.

I helped guide a storm chasing tour back on May 8-16th. Here's a few of the better shots from the trip...

Catching up on things, here's the 90°+ tally so far this year... 6 - MDW 5 - RFD 4 - Current Home 4 - Ex-Home 2 - ORD

I've been busy with a bunch of trips the past month or so, so I really haven't been around much. It definitely does look to flip to a more summer-like pattern though for the second half of the month, given how things look as of now. As I saw Powerball somewhat recently mention, the more spring-like (mild/lack of severe) pattern we are currently in has been due in large part to a -NAO/+PNA/-AO combo that has been in place, which has lead to persistent troughing across the SE Canada/Midwest/Great Lakes region. While this persistent troughing will stick around this week and next weekend, large scale changes in the pattern are already starting to occur and will continue to occur this week. After next weekend (Weekend of 11/12th) is when the noticeable change will take place across this sub-forum, as we will lose the aforementioned persistent troughing, and ridging attempts to build in. With a fluid situation over the PAC/AK, there is some agreement on another transient trough moving eastward-ish along the Canada/US border. Beyond that, ENS have a large ridge building in across the heart of the country, starting later next week (June 16/17th?), behind the aforementioned transient trough for next week. I'm not sure how ENS or teleconnections have faired since late April since I haven't been around to follow, so we'll see how they handle this pattern change. For now though, there is a large amount of agreement, even in the longer range.

we can lock in and replace Dec-March with these conditions.

Tranquil high temps and precip chances every few days are good, but the addition of warmer night lows and more humidity would do wonders.

i bumped it under 30° just for you.

paradise is 95°/77°.

The CPC is worse than the SPC, and that’s a hard feat to accomplish in the first place.

don’t waste your time, they suck.

They were landspouts.

That construction is still happening, and will increase quite a bit over the next few years as I-490 is built.