Chicago Storm

we get it.

Forgot to post these shots from home Tuesday evening, of a shelf cloud along an OFB pushing out ahead of a severe t'storm to the northwest.

Nice scenes a bit ago, as some shower/t’storm activity attempted to move in with 30° T/DP spreads.

finally has reached the point of bothering you, eh. took long enough.

Yea, the OP Euro/GEM and the EPS are all a long ways off from the OP GFS solution. Kind of why I started the mention in here, instead of another thread. The GEFS have made a steady flip towards more of what the OP GFS is showing though.

There definitely has been improvement, especially across portions of IA/S WI/IL/IN/OH.

No, you’re right. 12z was much more impressive.

12z OP GFS took it to the next level.

an mcs (with some severe risk) is the same as a fall storm these days, eh.

600DM ridge centered near STL. It's what dreams are made of.

Time to put this to bed... ...GRR... July (So far): +0.21" June: -2.52" May: +0.07" April: +1.20" March: +1.11"

@Hoosier is going to hold on to the 18z OP GFS run, and never let go.

Final high temps for today across the area... 95 MDW 94 ORD 95 RFD 97 Ex-Home Also should mention that MDW somehow hit 90 yesterday. 90°+ day tally for the year... 17 - MDW16 - RFD14 - Ex-Home12 - Current Home10 - ORD

Not our sub-forum, but Sioux Falls is currently getting the 2022 version of the Cedar Rapids 2020 derecho RIJ...

The criteria for an EHW outside of Cook Co is two days of heat indices of 110+.

This is why BAM is and always has been terrible.

Hopefully the SPC upgrades portions of SD/MN/NE/IA to a moderate risk. Looks like a textbook long-track MCS/derecho setup. An MCS currently in SD, which originated in far W MT yesterday evening, has matured and is tied to a nice wave topping the ridge over the Central US. Should see that complex ride the instability gradient ESE through the afternoon/evening, acorss portions of SD/NE/MN/IA. How far east it makes it will be dependent on other developing convection through the day ahead of it, near a frontal boundary in place.

As the MCS moved through, had peak wind gusts of 55MPH ORD, 51MPH MDW and 50-60MPH here at home.

It handled during the day better than the NAM, but still not the best. It has nothing tonight.

Given it hasn’t handled activity today correctly, and odds are won’t tonight either, probably easily undercut whatever it shows around here.

There was an embedded supercell. A very Gulf Coast/land falling TC like situation.

CAMS look to be useless today, given there’s no agreement. Gonna have to ride observational trends.

Actually tagged 90 at a few isolated locations across the area today, including the world-renowned ex-home and at DPA. 90°+ day tally for the year... 15 - MDW15 - RFD13 - Ex-Home11 - Current Home9 - ORD

POP’s were only at 30-50% as of yesterday afternoon, so shouldn’t be surprising.

It was confirmed earlier last week, based on my drone footage.