Chicago Storm

This is why BAM is and always has been terrible.

Hopefully the SPC upgrades portions of SD/MN/NE/IA to a moderate risk. Looks like a textbook long-track MCS/derecho setup. An MCS currently in SD, which originated in far W MT yesterday evening, has matured and is tied to a nice wave topping the ridge over the Central US. Should see that complex ride the instability gradient ESE through the afternoon/evening, acorss portions of SD/NE/MN/IA. How far east it makes it will be dependent on other developing convection through the day ahead of it, near a frontal boundary in place.

As the MCS moved through, had peak wind gusts of 55MPH ORD, 51MPH MDW and 50-60MPH here at home.

It handled during the day better than the NAM, but still not the best. It has nothing tonight.

Given it hasn’t handled activity today correctly, and odds are won’t tonight either, probably easily undercut whatever it shows around here.

There was an embedded supercell. A very Gulf Coast/land falling TC like situation.

CAMS look to be useless today, given there’s no agreement. Gonna have to ride observational trends.

Actually tagged 90 at a few isolated locations across the area today, including the world-renowned ex-home and at DPA. 90°+ day tally for the year... 15 - MDW15 - RFD13 - Ex-Home11 - Current Home9 - ORD

POP’s were only at 30-50% as of yesterday afternoon, so shouldn’t be surprising.

It was confirmed earlier last week, based on my drone footage.

By the way, I can confirm ORD did not run cool today. MDW is clearly just doing something special.

Final high temps for today across the area... 94 MDW 92 ORD 92 RFD 94 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 15 - MDW15 - RFD12 - Ex-Home11 - Current Home9 - ORD Edit: Also, had a sneaky high of 90 at ex-home yesterday as well.

94 MDW and 91 ORD currently.

MDW and ORD both at 89° currently. An area of cirrus moving through, leveling the playing field a bit. So it appears sunny days with S-SW-W winds is when MDW outperforms all.

If you take the Euro weeklies at face value, it has the ridge building northward across the Rockies and Plains. While not directly over us, we would still benefit. We’ll see how it all trends as we get closer and more into ENS range.

It’s a product of the deeper mixing we’ve been seeing on a daily basis. I’m pretty sure that every day so far during this several day stretch, we’ve mixed to at least 850mb.

A NW flow pattern will do that to ya.

Delayed, but not denied.

We have transitioned from two back-to-back heat waves during the middle portion of June, to a drier (DP wise) and more tranquil temperature regime, which began last week. This change mostly has to do with what has been going up in Canada and the northern half of the Northern Hemisphere, which is a very convoluted pattern of sorts. With this new pattern that we've slipped into since last week and that looks to continue through much of the first 1/4th of July (We'll have to see how the 2/4th of July trends, looks like we see a shit of sorts), the teleconections overall will be -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO...But its not actually a full on pattern that resembles that teleconnection combo. Instead, what we have is a large area of troughing that has been and will continue to hang around the Hudson region, with some ridging that has been overtopping it at times in the Greenland area, sort of acting like a weak -NAO...not all consistent with +NAO showing up in the teleconnections. Additionally, there has been and will continue to be constant troughing in the GOA region, with some ridging across Western Canada and up into E Alaska. So while teleconnections show a -EPO, that setup is more along the lines of a +EPO. As for the -PNA shown on the teleconnections, that is probably the only one being depicted accurately at face value, as the GOA low has and will continue to sag into the PAC NW...So there is a -PNA, just not a deep one (As we often see in winter, with troughs deeper into the SW US). So what all of that nonsense means is that the core of the ridging will be centered from the Desert SW, through the S Plains and into the Southeast, with constant troughing/storm systems/fronts and W and NW flow moving across the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast. Essentially it is a pattern that should be wetter overall in the region, compared to what we have seen much of June...Though there will obviously still be areas that miss out, we all know that's how it is every summer. Those looking for more/consistent severe wx chances, I'm not enthused overall. As for temperatures, they should continue to range from tranquil to warm, with the warmer pushes being ahead of any approaching storm systems...With temperature departures overall being around to above average still, though cooler night lows might play a role in altering that a bit.

The current activity (last night/today) in the region, and then a potentially more widespread wetter/active period on the way for early July should keep the drought in check for many (Not all) areas. I’ll have a bit more info in the summer thread later today.

Final high temps for today across the area... 93 MDW 92 ORD 92 RFD 93 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 14 - MDW14 - RFD10 - Current Home10 - Ex-Home8 - ORD

And with that high of 91 at RFD today... 90°+ day tally for the year... 13 - MDW13 - RFD9 - Current Home9 - Ex-Home7 - ORD

The lake breeze the great equalizer today, with ORD and MDW topping out at 85.

As mentioned in the other thread, final high temps for today across the area... 93 MDW 89 ORD 90 RFD 89 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 13 - MDW12 - RFD9 - Current Home9 - Ex-Home7 - ORD

High temps today across the area... 92 MDW 89 ORD 90 RFD 89 Ex-Home