Chicago Storm

A lot of over-mixing there. The GFS has done horribly in the short range with that across the Plains.

It hit 103 in STL today. 3rd 100+ day of the year.

I somehow missed that gem. LOT doesn’t even have precip in the grids right now, let alone t’storms. Based on current guidance, that’s the way to go for now. I was once told by someone well known that the SPC is “The best at what they do”. Kind of comical, really.

Not surprising, odds were always against it. Euro, NAM and 3km NAM did especially bad. Just 18-24 hours ago they had the SLP moving from WI down into N IL, and instead it’s well west, dropping south between OMA and DSM. HRRR and other guidance score a win with this one.

accurate is an understatement here.

Time for an update, though there's really not much to update... Things have gone fairly close to expectations over the past few weeks, since the above update in late June. Looking forward, the next few weeks through the end of the month don't look too significantly different from the pattern we are in/have been in. There will continue to be persistent troughing in the vicinity of the GOA on down into the PAC NW...Which is a continuation of what has been occurring the past few weeks. It does appear the persistent ridging that has been seen the past few weeks in W and/or C Canada will tone down, so that is one change. Persistent troughing will also continue across the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast regions as well, with a bit of ridging at times popping up around part of Greenland/Arctic regions...All of which is also a continuation of what has been occurring the past few weeks as well. All in all, this will continue to lead to a lot of what we have been seeing already this month... The main ridge/heat dome will continue to be centered across the Inter-Mountain West/Central and Southern Plains, and possibly into the Southeast at times. This will continue to keep most of this sub-forum in a more northwestly flow pattern, with an average to active weather pattern. This also means the most consistently hot temperatures will continue to be limited to the far southwestern portions of the sub-forum, with hotter conditions elsewhere being short lived ahead of passing storm systems.

under. definitely going to have mixing concerns.

should mean we get another 3 or 4 posts today.

That's a large wind farm.

We're probably just about done for the day/night regarding anything interesting/meaningful.

we get it.

Forgot to post these shots from home Tuesday evening, of a shelf cloud along an OFB pushing out ahead of a severe t'storm to the northwest.

Nice scenes a bit ago, as some shower/t’storm activity attempted to move in with 30° T/DP spreads.

finally has reached the point of bothering you, eh. took long enough.

Yea, the OP Euro/GEM and the EPS are all a long ways off from the OP GFS solution. Kind of why I started the mention in here, instead of another thread. The GEFS have made a steady flip towards more of what the OP GFS is showing though.

There definitely has been improvement, especially across portions of IA/S WI/IL/IN/OH.

No, you’re right. 12z was much more impressive.

12z OP GFS took it to the next level.

an mcs (with some severe risk) is the same as a fall storm these days, eh.

600DM ridge centered near STL. It's what dreams are made of.

Time to put this to bed... ...GRR... July (So far): +0.21" June: -2.52" May: +0.07" April: +1.20" March: +1.11"

@Hoosier is going to hold on to the 18z OP GFS run, and never let go.

Final high temps for today across the area... 95 MDW 94 ORD 95 RFD 97 Ex-Home Also should mention that MDW somehow hit 90 yesterday. 90°+ day tally for the year... 17 - MDW16 - RFD14 - Ex-Home12 - Current Home10 - ORD

Not our sub-forum, but Sioux Falls is currently getting the 2022 version of the Cedar Rapids 2020 derecho RIJ...

The criteria for an EHW outside of Cook Co is two days of heat indices of 110+.