Chicago Storm

yep. i get that there 'needs' to be a cop-out or fail-point. however, it isn't convective issues, it very clearly was a trend towards an even more janky H5 evolution...which carries elsewhere.

convection most definitely did not block moisture transport, as that heavy convection was modeled for days, even on guidance showing a heavier hit for MI. again, the difference came aloft, with an even jankier H5 look...which is also why the surface low kept trending east. let's take a look at the NAM, which was one of the last to let go of a snowier solution... pretty clear cut look on why things trended southeast and weaker. obviously if you trend H5 jankier, the associated surface low in turn ends up weaker/southeast, and moisture transport/850 low shunted east. also, note on the second image of the heavy convection modeled days ago.

but, it’s actually not the reason. look at the H5 changes over the past few days and you have your answer.

and you say i’m the asshole…

WAA burst of snow this evening was as advertised. Peaked with a period of SN at ORD, with a final snowfall total of 1.8”. The seasonal snowfall total is now 14.8”.

They have been issued int he past for the same. Classic inconsistencies in the NWS.

The internally don't follow their usual routine is part of the issue. Any other time, a WWA would have been issued.

Easily.

That WAA wing of snow is going to be a brief, but nice period of 'pound town'.

Oh, I'm aware. I just don't expect something out of my climo that isn't possible.

We're all dog hunters at heart. Josh and the deep winter-ites are good with the nickel and dimers, but for most here, they want quality events. Personally, I'd prefer summer year-round, but do have a soft spot for chasing dogs in the winter.

From your area (Roughly) up into MI-crew territory (And the Ontario folks) definitely are fully in the game still.

Not a single 6z EPS member was 'amped' for outside of MI. The number of 'amped' GEFS members are becoming less as of 12z. If you get my jive on the overall look of things...

This.

This is one of the most overused statements in the winter, and is not the case in this instance.

That has to do with the evolution aloft, in which how things are currently depicted are not favorable for such.

With this trending evolution, we're probably looking at a Des Moines-Dubuque-Madison-Sheboygan-N/L Michigan northern max, for the heart of a potential snowfall axis. The bigger concern would probably be an added trend to this new evolution, which would result in SE shifts or a slower evolution until late (See the 0z UKMET).

GEM stepin’ too.

alek on the pbp. you know there's some jonesing.

Not yet...

That would be correct.

that TPV lobe though...

In the end, this one was a medium dawg...

Normally, that would be a look for a hit here or just SE of here. But with things strung out, that given it freedom to roam a bit more.

Final even snowfall total of 2.9" at ORD. The seasonal snowfall total is up to 13.0".