Chicago Storm

too bad that’s not realistic.

As a few others have said, the heatwaves and increasing drought in May and June had you thinking a hot summer was on the way. But the persistent GOA/Pac NW and Hudson/Greenland troughing combo that developed in June really snuffed that hot summer idea.

Warm biased PWK was the only other location to hit 90+ (91). 90°+ day tally for the year... 25 - MDW19 - RFD19 - Ex-Home16 - ORD16 - Current Home

Easy escape today, which locks it.

I was in the NW suburbs (Ex-home) when the severe warned line of t'storms hit earlier this afternoon. Ended up with peak wind gusts of 50-55MPH, but did not come across any damage.

For a little while this morning I was on the significant train, but watching how things have evolved the past few hours this morning, I’ve quickly exited the train a while ago. The environment is fairly good overall, with… Ample moisture, ample instability, a disturbance moving through, a quality plume of higher lapse rates and some clear skies for heating. However, as noted by an expanding low level cloud shield ahead of the line, there is a stable layer in place. This, in part with a few other things (such as lagging shear), is limiting intensification. So instead right now we have a weaker line of t’storms moving east, with outflow racing out ahead. Maybe it’ll change in a few hours, but by then it might be too late for the Chicago area.

4th and 8, grossman is your qb.

Brushed by today, but shall see how tomorrow trends.

Things are very messy overall right now. Based on some minor digging and research I’ve done over the years… An MCV track of E or ENE is optimal and what you want to see for something more significant/widespread to be possible. A more NE or NNE MCV track hasn’t been as fruitful significant/coverage wise.

There’s about three different possible solutions in play as well, with placement on each of them in question.

MDW is a guarantee to hit, because it’s MDW. Elsewhere is more in question.

It took until the last few days of the month and it’s lower end, but finally a shot to rival my call.

At one point this past hour there was a 5° spread between ORD and MDW. Tough to pull off on a day with no precip and identical sky conditions/wind direction.

any interest in a sub-forum ffb league?

they're at least good for providing severe t'storm wind damage, along with ash trees (the few that still exist).

I’m out camping this weekend at Johnson Sauk Trail State Park, just north of Kewanee IL. There were repeated rounds of rain/t’storms Fri night and through the day on Saturday. Unfortunately I wasn’t able to do any real chasing on Saturday, but did manage to see a very brief funnel cloud about 10 miles southwest of the park as some severe warned activity moved in around mid-afternoon Saturday. Then, Saturday evening while exiting the park for a bit, I was greeted by this nice base/lowering on a rain shower just to the west-northwest of the park. Similar activity had produced funnel clouds across E IA and NW IL during the late afternoon and evening on Saturday.

LER across portions of NE IL tonight.

Intermediate update time... The below two images will sum things up fairly well, but the pattern we have seen much of this summer is becoming more significant and entrenched. There is high/very good agreement in this pattern being around into at least half of the late month period. If you're looking for interesting weather or deep summer weather, you're going to be disappointed.

Yea, I'm still not on that train for our sub-forum... ENS support is high for not only the pattern we've seen much of the summer to continue, but only become more significant and deeply entrenched. The below isn't what you want if you're looking for interesting weather (Quality heat or severe). Obviously that doesn't mean we can't see any warmer temps or any severe at all, it's just not a supportive pattern for anything good or consistent as it looks.

better get used to the zzz, because it's going to be around for a while.

you’re missing the point.

it’s no different than when we start talking about the sun angle when we start to roll into february.

With the way the pattern is looking through the beginning portion of the end of the month, it definitely isn't going to be any time soon at the least.

Not to go all Spartman, but the high of 95 at ORD/MDW this past Saturday was 'probably' the last 90+ day this month for Chicago.

you're in atlanta now?