Chicago Storm

GFS being the GFS. A lot in flux though coming up for the final 1/3rd of the month and into early November, with the biggest pattern change we’ve seen since the spring and MJO moving as well. .

First T of snow on the new season today in Chicago and Rockford.

Chicago area folks should be watching the potential for the first flakes of the season on Monday, associated with an inverted trough featuring swinging through the Great Lakes. (Along with portions of WI/MI/N IN/N OH).

I was surprised they had gone with one yesterday, due to the likelihood of clouds being an issue. Early next week is the real widespread freeze, and likely a hard freeze at that. .

Negligible cape, but a high shear/forced environment. A day like this many times will not “do it” and will almost always fly under the radar. On the rare occasion it works out, this is what you get.

Nothing really supported what is occurring right now. .

Couplets galore right now showing up on TMKE. .

Yea, not going to blame them on this one for once. .

That’s is…unexpected. .

The first 1/3rd of this month has essentially panned out as expected. Looking forward to the next 1/3rd of the the month (11-20th), we are going to see some changes on tap. For the first time in a while we will be seeing a formidable -NAO, from late this week through early next week. At the same time, we will be seeing a rex block take shape along the West coast the middle of this week, continuing into early next week. There will also be the re-introduction of Aleutian/GOA troughing, which had recently relaxed a bit. This will lock in a significant trough across the Hudson region, our sub-forum and the Northeast. In the wake of mild temps today-Wed and some rain chances Tue/Wed, this upcoming period looks chilly and dry overall. During this period we'll likely see several additional chances for frost/freeze conditions across the sub-forum, as well as the chance for some synoptic flakes across portions of the MW/GL.

i don’t even know how one comes up with such a splotchy map, unless it’s some random ms paint drawing. .

this isn’t looking so hot right now. .

one that melts on contact. .

For the first 1/3rd of October (Through close to the 10th-ish), things look to remain as they generally have been. Feels like I've said this about 50 times over the past few months, but for this first chunk of October we will see a continuation of the general pattern we have seen dominate a good portion of the summer and the pattern we are currently in. The constant troughing centered around the Hudson/Greenland, which has been relentless, will continue to be the focus for weather in most of our sub-forum. All in all, this will lead to generally zzz and dry weather activity wise, and a fall-like temperature regime for the first 1/3rd of the month. One wildcard to watch will be the potential for the splitting of the newly formed seasonal PV in the Arctic. The GEFS were showing this in the very extended, and as time goes on, they continue to latch onto this idea even more-so. That could alter things for the end of the first 1/3rd of the month and second 1/3rd of the month.

Everything has panned out pretty much as expected for mid to late Sept...With the heat wave in mid Sept, followed by a return to a similar pattern as to what has dominated much of the summer (Pictured below). Oct thoughts to come in a later post, but not much change expected to start.

Summary regarding what to expect for the first 1/4 to 1/2 of October… And .

yea, it usually is. .

Not surprisingly, levels are running below there as well...Though a bit less than other sites in the bay area. The generally NE wind has been running nearly parallel to the length of the bay blowing out. This isn't really a situation where the water is going to stack up or has nowhere to go, as it is just existing into the Gulf.

SevereStudios cam set up WSW of Punta Gorda is getting rocked right now, the worst it has been all day visually there. The W-N eyewall is still potent, with new hot towers visible on IR satellite and a higher end velocity signature still. There also looks to be a sustained MV signature just north of Punta Gorda, on the NW side of the COC as well.

G108KT at Punta Gorda. KPGD 281935Z AUTO 10065G108KT 1/2SM RA FG OVC011 24/24 RMK AO2 PK WND 100108/1927 RAB1812B1836B1849B1854B03B07 TSB1802E1847E09 P0064 T02390239

KPGD 281921Z AUTO 09067G94KT 1/4SM +RA FG 24/24 RMK AO2 PK WND 08095/1910 LTG DSNT NE AND E RAB1812B1836B1849B1854B03B07 TSB1802E1847E09 P0056 T02390239 $

I'll be down there in a week and a half. Wish timing lined up better for me.

That depends on your definition of warm.

And now 101° today.

Paducah hit 100° today. .