Chicago Storm

Not surprising, but MDW was the only site to tag 90°+ in NE IL. 90°+ day tally for the year... 27 - MDW 19 - RFD 19 - Ex-Home 16 - ORD 16 - Current Home

Ironically, that summer lead into a 3rd consecutive fall La Niña…which is also the case this year.

Even taking into account how MDW can be, I'd imagine it hasn't happened too much.

MDW was the only location to tag 90 in NE IL today. 90°+ day tally for the year... 26 - MDW19 - RFD19 - Ex-Home16 - ORD16 - Current Home

that’s two. need 6 more at the minimum.

It worked out this month, but I'm not touching that for Sept. As you mentioned, there's a few opportunities coming up... Thur-Sat is the first window of opportunity, and then again *possibly* later next week/following weekend for the next window. That second period is far less certain, with tropical/cut-off ULL potential somewhere.

bump.

The "requirements" are sort of fluid these days, so you probably could say it was one in some terms. As for that NY activity, that was separate from the main MCS across IL/MI/IN/OH/ON.

it’s not realistic because of the issues the GFS is having, not because it can’t or never has happened.

It’s still big wind/derecho season, though the tail end of it.

too bad that’s not realistic.

As a few others have said, the heatwaves and increasing drought in May and June had you thinking a hot summer was on the way. But the persistent GOA/Pac NW and Hudson/Greenland troughing combo that developed in June really snuffed that hot summer idea.

Warm biased PWK was the only other location to hit 90+ (91). 90°+ day tally for the year... 25 - MDW19 - RFD19 - Ex-Home16 - ORD16 - Current Home

Easy escape today, which locks it.

I was in the NW suburbs (Ex-home) when the severe warned line of t'storms hit earlier this afternoon. Ended up with peak wind gusts of 50-55MPH, but did not come across any damage.

For a little while this morning I was on the significant train, but watching how things have evolved the past few hours this morning, I’ve quickly exited the train a while ago. The environment is fairly good overall, with… Ample moisture, ample instability, a disturbance moving through, a quality plume of higher lapse rates and some clear skies for heating. However, as noted by an expanding low level cloud shield ahead of the line, there is a stable layer in place. This, in part with a few other things (such as lagging shear), is limiting intensification. So instead right now we have a weaker line of t’storms moving east, with outflow racing out ahead. Maybe it’ll change in a few hours, but by then it might be too late for the Chicago area.

4th and 8, grossman is your qb.

Brushed by today, but shall see how tomorrow trends.

Things are very messy overall right now. Based on some minor digging and research I’ve done over the years… An MCV track of E or ENE is optimal and what you want to see for something more significant/widespread to be possible. A more NE or NNE MCV track hasn’t been as fruitful significant/coverage wise.

There’s about three different possible solutions in play as well, with placement on each of them in question.

MDW is a guarantee to hit, because it’s MDW. Elsewhere is more in question.

It took until the last few days of the month and it’s lower end, but finally a shot to rival my call.

At one point this past hour there was a 5° spread between ORD and MDW. Tough to pull off on a day with no precip and identical sky conditions/wind direction.

any interest in a sub-forum ffb league?

they're at least good for providing severe t'storm wind damage, along with ash trees (the few that still exist).