Chicago Storm

there was a fall banter thread, but not a winter one yet. so i went ahead and created one.

i guess.

cromartie providing a lot of bump worthy material for down the road.

Josh already answered the first portion, but as for the second portion... It has to do with the wave dampening/shearing out as it encounters blocking/confluence off to the NE/E.

Still doesn't look warm, but more-so a continued mild/cool back and forth.

gonna need to apply more after the thur/fri snow event washes it away.

someone gets it. .

somehow i missed this earlier, but not so hot looking. really surprised you didn't go miss north/rainer.

The GFS has actually done fairly well in recent times. However, with the recent upgrade that's in limbo now.

Re: Lake... Whether this event ends up in WI or IL, lake water temps are down in the low 40°'s now. A good 10° lower than was in place with the event from a few weeks ago.

High ENS support for this potential as well.

The PNA is only part of it though. The whole handling of the PV lobe in Canada has done a 180 over the past week, which is also a main driver of the pattern. Instead of a colder and not as active (For bigger storm systems) WNW/NW flow pattern with the PV lobe stuck beneath the NAO block (Sort of rex block-like), we get a quickly retreating PV lobe back up towards the Arctic and a more cool/mild and more active pattern (For bigger storm systems).

Yes it did. Saw a few people of importance elsewhere on social mention that the new version rated much worse than the previous version, in many aspects. .

keep moving the goal posts. .

looks like shorts weather. .

Part of a trough currently along the West Coast will translate east across the CONUS mid to late week. Should have the opportunity for a corridor of snow on the northern end of the system. Track and strength still tbd, dependent on shallow ridging ahead of wave and blocking north, in the wake of the departing Canadian PV lobe. .

First potential to watch will be late this upcoming week. A piece of the trough currently along the West Coast moves east across the CONUS, with the PV lobe in Canada departing back north. How quickly things evolve will greatly dictate track/strength of this potential. .

It's a f***** up situation/pattern, to say the least.

it used to mean lengthy periods of cold/dry. this season it apparently means a day or two of cold with no precip. .

would be the first CAD on the season.

The clipper part. There's definitely no support or shot at a clipper train for the whole first half of the month. Wouldn't rule it out for a time as we approach and get into mid-month, but that's pending PV lobe evolution. Late month is too far off to even mention at this point, given how volatile the pattern continues to be.

Good luck with that.

I wanted to get some thoughts out regarding the first 1/3rd of December a few days ago, but haven't had the chance with the holiday and some other thing going on. Hope to have something more out today or tomorrow, but shall see. In the mean-time tough, the tldr version will be... -The first 1/3rd of December (1-10th), as many can see now, will feature a solid mix of mild/cool temps across the sub-forum, with the coldest temps north and warmest south. With anticipated PV lobe movement to the Hudson/Ontario coast in canada and significant NAO progression, we should see the colder temps being most significant and widespread late in this opening 1/3rd of the month, and into the beginning of the middle 1/3rd of the month. -The best snow opportunity with the next two storm systems (early/mid this week & this weekend) will be across the northern half of the sub-forum, the the PV still across Northern Canada and a solid -PNA and associated ridge. As we head into next week, we will probably see the best alignment possible for PV lobe interaction with the continued -PNA. That would be the potential time to watch for something of more interest across the sub-forum. To wrap up this beginning 1/3rd of the month, we should see a turn towards a period of WNW/NW flow, given the aforementioned PV movement.

good luck with that.