Chicago Storm

Part of a trough currently along the West Coast will translate east across the CONUS mid to late week. Should have the opportunity for a corridor of snow on the northern end of the system. Track and strength still tbd, dependent on shallow ridging ahead of wave and blocking north, in the wake of the departing Canadian PV lobe. .

First potential to watch will be late this upcoming week. A piece of the trough currently along the West Coast moves east across the CONUS, with the PV lobe in Canada departing back north. How quickly things evolve will greatly dictate track/strength of this potential. .

It's a f***** up situation/pattern, to say the least.

it used to mean lengthy periods of cold/dry. this season it apparently means a day or two of cold with no precip. .

would be the first CAD on the season.

The clipper part. There's definitely no support or shot at a clipper train for the whole first half of the month. Wouldn't rule it out for a time as we approach and get into mid-month, but that's pending PV lobe evolution. Late month is too far off to even mention at this point, given how volatile the pattern continues to be.

Good luck with that.

I wanted to get some thoughts out regarding the first 1/3rd of December a few days ago, but haven't had the chance with the holiday and some other thing going on. Hope to have something more out today or tomorrow, but shall see. In the mean-time tough, the tldr version will be... -The first 1/3rd of December (1-10th), as many can see now, will feature a solid mix of mild/cool temps across the sub-forum, with the coldest temps north and warmest south. With anticipated PV lobe movement to the Hudson/Ontario coast in canada and significant NAO progression, we should see the colder temps being most significant and widespread late in this opening 1/3rd of the month, and into the beginning of the middle 1/3rd of the month. -The best snow opportunity with the next two storm systems (early/mid this week & this weekend) will be across the northern half of the sub-forum, the the PV still across Northern Canada and a solid -PNA and associated ridge. As we head into next week, we will probably see the best alignment possible for PV lobe interaction with the continued -PNA. That would be the potential time to watch for something of more interest across the sub-forum. To wrap up this beginning 1/3rd of the month, we should see a turn towards a period of WNW/NW flow, given the aforementioned PV movement.

good luck with that.

i wouldn't be wasting time with OP runs in this pattern.

Some ENS are now threading the needle, with another incoming trough. Not a likely scenario, but I guess it’s something to watch if you’re looking for a fairly minor event across portions of IL/WI/IN/MI. .

Had additional scattered snow showers at ORD and home, Friday and Saturday. They amounted to 0.1" on Friday and a T on Saturday at ORD, and a dusting both days at home.

Final product still TBD, but the Euro and GEM have caved towards the GFS idea of a late week/weekend S Plains cut off storm system, which eventually moves NE. The needle does not look as if it will be thread.

tth. .

Yea. .

On the flip side, yea, everything is going as expected as a whole…and looks to continue to do so. .

i’m not sure one day really qualifies. .

0647 AM SNOW 1 NE ORCHARD PARK 42.77N 78.74W 11/20/2022 M80.0 INCH ERIE NY PUBLIC STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT.

still waiting for cad to hit there. .

0826 PM SNOW 2 SW BLASDELL 42.77N 78.87W 11/18/2022 M65.0 INCH ERIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER UPDATED STORM TOTAL SO FAR. ATHOL SPRINGS.

Pulling for you to hit 7-10 feet.

0700 PM SNOW ORCHARD PARK 42.76N 78.74W 11/18/2022 M66.0 INCH ERIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER UPDATED STORM TOTAL AS OF 7 PM.

Do you submit your reports in to BUF?

0600 PM SNOW ORCHARD PARK 42.76N 78.74W 11/18/2022 M59.0 INCH ERIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER UPDATED STORM TOTAL AS OF 6 PM; AN ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES SINCE 4 PM, WITH NO LETUP IN THE SNOW.