Chicago Storm

A range of wintry precip at ORD this morning, with SN, GS and PL at some point. Event snowfall total of 0.2” at ORD. Ended up with mostly rain at home, with just a few snow flakes/snow pellets mixed in towards the end.

Looks like dynamic cooling was a little less than what most guidance was showing, which was enough to have the snow and rain/snow mix end up about a county or so north of what was expected.

KFSD 090256Z COR 09009KT 1/2SM SN FG VV005 01/M01 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP213 SNINCR 4/6 P0019 60050 I3002 T00111011 58013 RVRNO

KFSD 090156Z 09007KT 1/2SM SN FG VV008 00/M02 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP219 SNINCR 2/2 P0027 T00001017 RVRNO

That's a questionable statement.

ricky lol'd at your thought that we have had a period of cad at any point so far.

break out the gold bond and speedo.

Should add an image comparison of the pattern, from what it looked like previously (Top) to what it is expected to look like now (Bottom).

Portions of this first 1/3rd of the month are going as planned, and other portions are not (Bolded parts of the above quoted previous post are what will not be working out). As has been mentioned in other threads, a big fail point for the upcoming times is going to be medium/long range guidance failing horribly with the handling of things, especially the PV lobe in Canada. This is the first time medium/long range informaton has performed this badly since this past spring. The MJO movement, which has been a big signal for the pattern for far this season, has also not been as helpful in this case. Instead of the Canadian PV lobe parking on the south Hudson coast beneath the NAO block, we are seeing it instead make a brief appearance there, before quickly returning back north to the Arctic. What this means for late in this opening 1/3rd of the month and continuing into the middle 1/3rd of the month, is instead of a pattern featuring more consisently/widespread colder temps and a WNW/NW flow pattern that would likely not be as active or conducive to big storms... We end up with more a mild/cool temp pattern, and a pattern that is more active and supportive of bigger storm systems. Will have more thought on the middle 1/3rd of the month in its entirety soon.

There was nothing of note for most prior to Christmas last year. There were two threads created (One in early Dec & one in Nov), but both events faded well in advance. Outside of that, not much happened either, other than up north near Duluth/UP-land. Going back two winters ago, to the start of winter 2020/2021... We also only had two thread worthy events prior to Christmas, which did end up producing for areas of MN/WI/MI. So we are already ahead of where we were pretty much the last two winters. So far this season we have had that surprise event about a month ago across MO/IL/IN/KY, and then the lighter event further north up around here a few weeks ago. Minnesota/N WI/N MI have obviously had several events too. Then add in the upcoming Thur/Friday event for somewhere.

there was a fall banter thread, but not a winter one yet. so i went ahead and created one.

i guess.

cromartie providing a lot of bump worthy material for down the road.

Josh already answered the first portion, but as for the second portion... It has to do with the wave dampening/shearing out as it encounters blocking/confluence off to the NE/E.

Still doesn't look warm, but more-so a continued mild/cool back and forth.

gonna need to apply more after the thur/fri snow event washes it away.

someone gets it. .

somehow i missed this earlier, but not so hot looking. really surprised you didn't go miss north/rainer.

The GFS has actually done fairly well in recent times. However, with the recent upgrade that's in limbo now.

Re: Lake... Whether this event ends up in WI or IL, lake water temps are down in the low 40°'s now. A good 10° lower than was in place with the event from a few weeks ago.

High ENS support for this potential as well.

The PNA is only part of it though. The whole handling of the PV lobe in Canada has done a 180 over the past week, which is also a main driver of the pattern. Instead of a colder and not as active (For bigger storm systems) WNW/NW flow pattern with the PV lobe stuck beneath the NAO block (Sort of rex block-like), we get a quickly retreating PV lobe back up towards the Arctic and a more cool/mild and more active pattern (For bigger storm systems).

Yes it did. Saw a few people of importance elsewhere on social mention that the new version rated much worse than the previous version, in many aspects. .

keep moving the goal posts. .

looks like shorts weather. .