Chicago Storm

Vis was as low as 1SM for a time, but generally 1 1/4SM here.

the colder, the better. .

ya’ll are never gonna learn. .

TSSN SE of the Quad Cities, near Kewanee. .

Quite the pattern across the country this evening... Broad trough across the Inter-Mountain West and Central US, with a vertically stacked low centered in Sioux Falls area. You can see the next wave on WV imagery in the vicinity of Arkansas this evening, already amplifying as it goes negative tilt, with a nice divergent flow aloft as well.

good luck with that one.

this sub-forum doesn't have one.

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Depends what forecast you were following. In this case it is a different setup overall. The last event featured WAA for the duration of the event, while with this event there will be some CAA. In any case, it will be a situation where the closer to the border you are, the better the chance. Not expecting any snow in the metro at this point.

congrats on the move to mke. didn’t catch you as a city guy. .

Still looks like a close call for the IL/WI border area, very dependent on dynamic cooling. Much of WI still set to do decently, though.

This is right up you alley...

tth.

While Minnesota/Duluth/Bo-land were always expected to experience something significant, odds have been increasing for more of Wisconsin to have a shot at something meaningful now as well. Another wave rounds the main trough, with secondary development Wed/Thur. Something to watch for the Southern Wisconsin crowd (Maybe even IL/WI border area?). Outside of that, other areas could pick up some snow showers and minor accumulation with wrap around activity on Thur/Fri.

but are we though?

but is it though?

but has there really been zero snow?

how'd that go?

where's cromartie? need an update on the torch incoming heading into the christmas period.

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re-read what the post said. .

Running a day or two later than I wanted to get this out, but nonetheless... The middle 1/3rd of December (10-20th) will sort of be a transitional period. The well advertised Plains storm system for next week will be a rainer for many (Backside snow potential?), though there will most definitely be some accumulating snow across MN/WI/MI. That snow potential and the fact that any push of mild temperatures will be very muted/confined to the southern half of the sub-forum, will be thanks to the continued significant -NAO/Greenland block and associated 50/50 low that will be in place across the Northeast/Southeast Canada/adjacent Atlantic. So anyone that was onboard the mild for days or super mild temperatures train, be prepared to be derailed. Beyond the aforementioned storm system for next week, the final half of this middle 1/3rd of December is when see things start to take shape. We will slide into an -EPO/-AO/-NAO/N to -PNA pattern, with a SWE occurring as well (SPV on the move from Siberia to Greenland. This should lead to an overall colder temperature pattern for the closing days of this middle of the month period, but whether it's CAD or cold and active is still TBD. This pattern as of now would then continue into Christmas week. As mentioned in another thread post, this is probably one of the best looking patterns on paper that the GEFS/EPS have shown in years for December. However, after the 180 flip for the pattern in the current period we are in, caution should definitely be taken. We'll see how it goes.

GEFS/EPS at face value, it's one of the best looking potential Dec patterns in years. But that's at face value, and we know how ENS ended up doing a 180 for the period we are in now. So maybe cautious optimism, but there's a fine line between cold/active and CAD.