Chicago Storm

Haven't had a chance to put out any April thoughts with the active severe weather pattern ongoing, but... Spring is here for April, let's just put it that way. We are losing a lot of the ridging that has been in place up north, which was shunting the remaining cold air down into our region. I feel highly confident in saying Chicago has seen it's last accumulating snow for the season, which was back on 3/13. There's a better chance of racking up numerous 70+ days this month than seeing more accumulating snowfall.

Forgot to mention... This past Friday (3/31) was not only the first 60+ day of the year at ORD, but it was also the first 70+ day as well.

I'll be unable to chase this afternoon/evening due to work, as I had a decision between chasing today or Friday, and chose Friday. If I were able to, I would most definitely head out towards the IL/IA border, in anticipation of the afternoon/evening round of potential development in the vicinity of the warm front. Might still attempt to make a play on this morning/midday round if it moves in quick enough, and looks to be producing quality damaging winds/hail still.

They do. Risk level is coverage based and hatching is for significance. Their system is still quite flawed, though.

3/31 and 4/1 were two separate events, and wouldn't really consider either day to have had a derecho. 3/31 featured mixed mode, which produced corridors of damaging winds. 4/1 had two separate complexes, neither of which had the distance/longevity.

For now. Could readjust as I get closer. .

I’m about 30 minutes ahead of you. .

Taking care of a few things, and then will be headed WSW. Initial target likely Galesburg area, though that could change.

Each region has always had their own threads, so doesn’t matter much in the end. .

Might as well extend this into Monday and Tuesday as well. .

I've been watching... Still a bit too far out to make a final decision, but personally I may sit this one out to save days off for other opportunities down the road (Events without 50-75MPH storm motions and potential upscale growth issues). We'll see... Nonetheless, as it looks now there most definitely is quality potential across portions of IA/MO/IL, and possibly some adjacent areas as well.

that's a no.

per usual, they’re having issues. .

I would bank on this trending slower, and thus trending west.

Currently a cluster of t’storms, some severe, in the vicinity of the warm front near I-80. .

There’s been a good bit of TSSN around the QC over the past hour. .

There were a few this evening and tonight. The Rolling Fork-Silver City, MS one was during the evening, and it sounds and looks like it was quite significant. Then tonight Amory, MS took a hit from another significant one. One of the better looking radar couplets you’ll see… .

For those in MN/WI/MI that are not socked in clouds, a big northern lights display is currently underway. Being reported as far south as Virginia, with solid naked eye viewing.

it's a change of pace from the usual spiral into historic michigan snow chat like every other thread.

I was down in the St. Pete Beach area for a brief trip this past weekend (Sat-Mon). Typical winter/spring transition weather down there during my short stay.

I was down that way (SPB) this past weekend. Red tide wasn't an issue this past weekend, at least. Sounds like main effects have been further south along the coast.

this may be your worst take ever.

Downtown/lakefront is easily under 10” on the season.

Drought is definitely not going to be a concern for most, for a while that is.

The first 1/2 of March pretty much went as expected for the most part. The second 1/2 of March, which we have already moved into, will feature a very rollercoaster March-like weather pattern across the CONUS. As mentioned in the previous post at the start of March, the pattern was already expected to be once again transitioning by now, which it has done so. The period of significant -EPO/-AO/-NAO has quickly relaxed, giving way to an EPO/AO/NAO that is in flux, and will continue to be through the end of the month. What this means is we will see periods of AO/NAO ridging, pretty much transient or meandering nature, but nonetheless still there. With an EPO bouncing around the +/- sides of neutral and a significant/lengthy -PNA period expected, this will support constant troughs dropping in from the Alaska vicinity, down into the West Coast, and then moving across the CONUS below the transient AO/NAO ridging. This will all lead to an active, but steadily moving weather pattern across the CONUS. Best snow chances will be across the northern half of the sub-forum, namely the heavy hit corridor of the winter (MN/WI/MI), with severe weather opportunities possible across the southern half of the sub-forum. This will also be a pattern with temperatures that bounce around quite rollercoaster like as well, with mild temps ahead of storm systems and cool temps behind them. Once again, all in all what I would consider to be a typical March-like pattern. Looking ahead towards getting into the beginning of April, it looks quite likely a similar pattern will continue.