Chicago Storm

The GEFS have been superb in handling the MJO over the past 1-2 months, whereas the EPS have struggled quite a bit. So, talking on a pure MJO based view of things... If we can round the bend through phases 4-5-6, it would bode well for those looking for a relatively active pattern and consistent spring conditions. Phase 6 still runs a high above average temp correlation for this time of year, for example. Phases 5-6 are supportive of an active/wetter pattern as well. Now the one thing to watch will be what happens with the SPV up north. There is full on support of sudden and significant warming set to occur soon, with also quite a bit of support at this being an early seasonal demise of the SPV. So, we will have to watch and see what sort of high latitude blocking tries to develop as a result of the initial impact on things, and how it may affect things and work with/against the MJO progression.

And this too...

Just going to leave this here...

i’m concerned for you.

As with any other year… For the days/events that are not thread worthy.

Let’s get the ball rolling…

Big dust storm...

hunch says you will win that one.

Winter (Dec-Feb) 2024/25 will finish as the 10th least snow winter on record for Chicago. Least Snow Winter's (Dec-Feb) 1. 5.7" - 1930/31 2. 6.3" - 1936/37 3. 7.1" - 1921/22 4. 7.9" - 1920/21 5. 8.8" - 1898/99 6. 11.0" - 1889/90 7. 11.6" - 1912/13 7. 11.6" - 1905/06 9. 11.7" - 1890/91 10. 11.9" - 2024/25

Winter (Dec-Feb) 2024/25 will finish as the 10th least snow winter on record for Chicago. Least Snow Winter's (Dec-Feb) 1. 5.7" - 1930/31 2. 6.3" - 1936/37 3. 7.1" - 1921/22 4. 7.9" - 1920/21 5. 8.8" - 1898/99 6. 11.0" - 1889/90 7. 11.6" - 1912/13 7. 11.6" - 1905/06 9. 11.7" - 1890/91 10. 11.9" - 2024/25

pulling for you not to pick-up some half-assed event(s) that kills the futility chase. at least there's a 3.1" buffer between current and #1.

counterpoint: it actually does have some.

This one has similarities in regards to the main trough sweeping W-E across the CONUS, with it being similarly strung out and evolving as well. Also, there's a secondary wave diving in from the NW, which has some phasing potential. The big thing that is different is that this time the TPV does not exist in S Canada.

It actually has some similarities to the event of a few weeks ago (The Detroit fader).

My view is let people root for what they want. Everyone has their own wants. No one rooting for anything is going to change what actually happens in reality.

Overall, between now and when we push into mid-month, it looks fairly up and down... or what you might consider a typical March. Even though things may end up warmer than average as a whole, with what will be an active weather pattern and quality cold still being replenished in Canada, there most definitely will be some snow chances around...mainly north of I-70 and especially I-80.

everyone brings up 2011 every single year.

We were in one a little over a week ago.

The peak coldest temp and wind chill this week at ORD was on Monday night/Tuesday morning. The low temp was -5 and the peak wind chill was -22.

i believe that we only have ever had a handful of members from that area. sort of surprising, given it’s a bigger metro/urban area.

you do you, guy.

yep. i get that there 'needs' to be a cop-out or fail-point. however, it isn't convective issues, it very clearly was a trend towards an even more janky H5 evolution...which carries elsewhere.

convection most definitely did not block moisture transport, as that heavy convection was modeled for days, even on guidance showing a heavier hit for MI. again, the difference came aloft, with an even jankier H5 look...which is also why the surface low kept trending east. let's take a look at the NAM, which was one of the last to let go of a snowier solution... pretty clear cut look on why things trended southeast and weaker. obviously if you trend H5 jankier, the associated surface low in turn ends up weaker/southeast, and moisture transport/850 low shunted east. also, note on the second image of the heavy convection modeled days ago.

but, it’s actually not the reason. look at the H5 changes over the past few days and you have your answer.