Chicago Storm

Likely to see additional shifting. The 18z NAM is continuing the SE trend, for example. (Edit: Not so much in the end).

a tradition like no other.

New thread...

tth. .

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hopefully you’re heading elsewhere after arrival. .

0z ECMWF follows the current trend that the rest of the 0z suite featured.

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As well as the 0z UKMET. .

Add the 0z GEM to the list as well. .

Add the 0z GFS to the list from a few posts up. The SE/delayed amping trend is strong, for now.

Not a good start re: this for the 0z suite.

0z RGEM will continue the trend.

Notable changes on the 0z NAM... Ridging both ahead and behind the main through is flatter, and the main through does not dig as much. Makes sense that run turned out the way that it did.

It pumps up better ridging immediately ahead of the trough, but further ahead things end up a bit flatter overall. This, along with changes in the Pacific/West Coast, are some of the reasons we have seen a slight shift east in the track (And other changes).

That is most definitely one of the changes, actually briefly mentioned a change in Canada earlier...and that's it. As you can see in your animation, that alters heights ahead of the main trough/wave.

Hawaii issues their own watches.

Unfortunately the Gulf feed is not the best, due the the wave moving through the Deep South/Gulf Coast over the next few days.

Izzi went all out in his AFD. I definitely would not have at this point.

Event underway there in about 48 hours or less, so it makes sense. The surprising one is IND already going with a WSW. I'm guessing they're giving more than usual lead time, given the upcoming holiday travel period.

The changes we saw with the 12z suite (Even part of the 6z suit) made sense, given what's going on in the larger scale. Overall, there has been a trend towards less digging of the trough as it moves through the Western/Central US, due to some changes over the Pacific and up in Canada. This leads to a somewhat weaker storm system initially, later deepening, an eastward shift in track and a loss of some of the more significant solution output. A thing to watch is if this trend continues or is reversed over the next 24 hours or so. As we continue to move through today and tomorrow, more sampling of all of the moving pieces will occur. By the time we reach tomorrow evenings 0z runs, we should have a locked in idea on how it will all go down.

12z guidance trend has been to have the trough move into the region further north initially, leading to a delay in when things amp up. In turn you get a bump east in the track and a weaker storm system initially.

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