Chicago Storm

We'll make it to mid-month with only a T at least.

tropical was one.

that's his og username.

tth. .

Things have panned out as anticipated for the first 1/3rd of February, with most things looking on track for what was expected as we head into the middle 1/3rd of February as well. We will indeed be shifting into a pattern dominated by a -PNA, with SE ridging flexing quite a bit from time to time as well. It appears we will have more of a neutral-ish EPO, with rolling ridges instead of a strong/significant firmly entrenched. The lower atmosphere PV lobe will continued to be centered north, across Northern Canada, north of the Hudson generally. Across the CONUS, the look of this pattern is what you'd expect to see with the MJO swinging through phases 4-5-6, as it is doing so. This will once again lead to the best chances for cool temps/snow to be across MN/WI/MI, with thread the needle potential needed elsewhere and mild temps more often than not. The one thing to watch will be the continued disruption of the SPV as we move forward. This, along with a few other factors, will aide in cold air rebuilding a bit across Canada. So it would not be surprising to get a shot brief shot of colder temps across more of the sub-forum if we can get a decent storm system to roll through the region (See the current Euro for that fantasy outcome). As we head into the final 1/3rd of February, it appears a similar pattern will continue to start, with a -PNA/SE flexing ridge, though possibly with more of a -EPO developing by then. This idea is very much supported by the ENS and the continued MJO movement from phases 5-6-7 by then. As we head deeper into the final 1/3rd of February, I do expect we see the pattern take another shift though. More on that down the road...

At the time it was the only report anywhere over 5", but now there are numerous 5-9" reports in a narrow corridor from DBQ up to MSN. Talk about threading the needle.

I’m guessing that 9” report is an error. .

MSP is +23.1" on the season, has had a snow depth of at least 6" since Dec 20th and a snow depth of at least 1" since Nov 30th. Edit: Add in 11 days with sub-zero temps. total misery.

most winter folks are on here to track accumulating snow, not snow cover.

it’s interesting that the guy who says we’ve had endless palm weather has his cooped up in his basement, instead of outdoors enjoying said palm weather. .

nice grasp job in here.

zzz .

mmhmm...

-44/-103 on Mount Washington currently.

fakest rant ever.

you say that, but it’s clear that you don’t. .

if you were far more realistic, maybe that would happen. .

I'd hone in on somewhere in that 15-28th period (And into March). Obviously far out, but that's what the early signals are suggesting.

don’t waste your time. .

All in all things have gone fairly close to expectation for the final 1/3rd of January. The active pattern continued, which finally brought more widespread snow opportunities to much of the sub-forum. We have also seen temperatures trend colder in stages in the wake of the storm system mid last week. Regarding the current period of the final weekend in January, the shared week of the end of January/beginning of February, and the first weekend of February...The pattern of a relaxing -EPO/-PNA/less -NAO attempts has unfolded, and some aspects have evolved a bit faster than previously depicted when the above quoted post was written nearly two weeks ago. As mention at the time, it would be a gamblers pattern. We obviously had the event this past weekend that some cashed in on quite well and there have been a few minor events to start this week in parts of the Ohio Valley...So the gamble was not a total loss for all, but many left down some some cash. For this first 1/3rd of February as a whole, we will continue evolution to another pattern. We will once again revert back to a less consistent wintery pattern (And less active for a bit in general), one that features the best chance of snow and cold being across MN/WI/MI, and needing to more rely on threading the needle elsewhere. We will see a combination of a NAO hovering around neutral, a +EPO, the PNA around or just south of neutral, the lower atmospheric PV lobe center shifting north and an MJO expected to transition from phase 3 to 4. As we head into the first portion of the middle 1/3rd of February there are some strong signals of wanting to head towards a -EPO/-PNA/big SE ridge pattern. This not only has solid ENS support at this long range, but is also heavily supported by the projected MJO movement as well. However, the one wild card will continue to be the SPV, which continues to be taking hits...and could have hand in altering things in a different way. Still awhile off from this period, so we'll see how it trends with time.

Final snowfall total of 0.5" at ORD overnight.

Another weak disturbance moving through tonight, producing some fluffy steady snow across the metro area. .

Tacked on an additional 0.1” from the light precip, for a final snowfall total of 2.3” at ORD. .