Chicago Storm

Weak disturbance moving through tonight, with an f-gen band of snow shifting NE through the area this evening. Already dusted here at ORD with -SN.

Sorry to break it to them, but they're like 2 weeks behind on that. Already happened.

it's 80 in D.C. today, they've had 18 60+days this winter, and they have 0.4" of snow on the season. perfection.

ORD received 1.20" of rainfall yesterday, which broke the record precipitation total for the date of 0.95", which was set in 1919.

After leaving ORD last night, I took a drive NW towards the old stomping grounds of ex-home in NW Cook Co. The cut off between ice/no ice, as @kevlon62mentioned yesterday, was indeed right along I-290...and it was very sharp. It was the type of gradient where if you were on a given road, trees on one side were ice covered and the other side were not. Carrying on into the vicinity of Schaumburg/Streamwood/Hanover Park in NW Cook Co, there were widespread power outages and widespread tree damage as well. It reminded me of how things look in a post widespread damaging wind producing severe t'storm event in the warm season. I measured just shy of 0.20" of ice still on the trees at that time, and that was after several hours of melting at that point. So at the peak, there was likely ice accumulation of 1/4" around that area.

ASOS storm total ice accumulation in the area… DPA - 0.39” RFD - 0.37” UGN - 0.33” *Sensor outage, not a complete total. PWK - 0.17” Final rainfall totals in the area… ORD - 1.20" *Record for the date (0.95" - 1919). MDW - Sensor outage. RFD - 0.95"

687k without power in MI, and much of that in S MI. N IL peaked at 115k. .

Closing in on 100k without power across N IL.

some are not as far away as you think.

Power outages rapidly increasing across N IL. You don't even need to look at the radar, you can just look at the outage map to see where there has/hasn't been ice.

he stays on point.

Based on pictures I've seen, even with borderline temps and heavy rates, ice accrual has been fairly efficient across portions of Northern Illinois.

some of you need to take a page out of cromartie's book. every time he talks up a mild pattern and morch, he gets a solid snowfall.

Active is something we've had going for us more often than not this winter at least. With that continuing, time for repeated hydro issues.

I mean yea, there most definitely will be more opportunity. Whether any of it works out or is interesting enough remains the question.

ASOS ice accumulation in the area as of 2PM… RFD - 0.22” UGN - 0.22” DPA - 0.21” PWK - 0.09”

the lead wave is the main wave here. looking good later, hopefully we can get some t'storms in the area.

You’re looking at the radar too early. Give it a few more hours. .

BowMe, eh? .

I'd pump the brakes on that for now. Originally, very extended/long range guidance favored a flip to cold/wintry for the final 1/3rd of Feb, then it got pushed back to early March, and now it's more towards the transition into mid-March. The assault on the SPV has made things quite volatile, with the continued evolution of the MJO a big factor as well (Which continues to support a not so cold/wintry outcome into mid-March). The MJO has most definitely been overpowering any real effect of the SPV assault (Which has been ongoing for a month now) across the CONUS, that's for sure. Yes, long range guidance does show things (Such as teleconnections) shifting in the very long/extended range. Of note is a significant Scandinavian/European ridge retrograding towards Greenland, and eventually into Canada and the Northeastern CONUS... Which would lead you to believe that would push any remaining cold down into portions of the CONUS, though the Western and North-Central US may be favored if the -PNA regime continues. So that doesn't necessarily mean around here, and also given the struggles of guidance at that range, I'd wait up to another week before putting stock into it. That all reminds me, I never did get out a post regarding the final 1/3rd of February. In the end, it doesn't matter much, as it's a continuation of what we saw for the middle 1/3rd of February across the CONUS.

It probably was a bit warmer downtown/near the lake, but there's a big difference between current day UHI and 1870-1900 UHI. And, as Harry and Josh pointed out, many of those winters were mild region-wide.

beavis taking L's everywhere.

And we're back... Warmest Winters (DJF): 1. 37.2 - 1877/78 2. 35.6 - 1931/32 3. 35.2 - 1879/80 4. 35.1 - 1881/82 5. 34.6 - 1889/90 6. 33.6 - 1875/76 7. 33.2 - 1997/98 (Nino) 8. 33.0 - 1918/19 9. 32.8 - 2011/12 (Nina) 9. 32.8 - 1920/21 11. 32.5 - 2001/02 (Neutral) 12. 32.4 - 1930/31 13. 32.3 - 1953/54 (Nino) 14. 31.4 - 2022/23 (Nina) *2/19 14. 31.4 - 2019/20 (Neutral) 14. 31.4 - 2015/16 (Nino)

Now that there has been a few days of melt, you can really see the narrow corridor that received max snowfall amounts.

Looks like 4.2” DVN and 2.3” MLI on the CLI. .