Chicago Storm

ASOS ice accumulation in the area as of 2PM… RFD - 0.22” UGN - 0.22” DPA - 0.21” PWK - 0.09”

the lead wave is the main wave here. looking good later, hopefully we can get some t'storms in the area.

You’re looking at the radar too early. Give it a few more hours. .

BowMe, eh? .

I'd pump the brakes on that for now. Originally, very extended/long range guidance favored a flip to cold/wintry for the final 1/3rd of Feb, then it got pushed back to early March, and now it's more towards the transition into mid-March. The assault on the SPV has made things quite volatile, with the continued evolution of the MJO a big factor as well (Which continues to support a not so cold/wintry outcome into mid-March). The MJO has most definitely been overpowering any real effect of the SPV assault (Which has been ongoing for a month now) across the CONUS, that's for sure. Yes, long range guidance does show things (Such as teleconnections) shifting in the very long/extended range. Of note is a significant Scandinavian/European ridge retrograding towards Greenland, and eventually into Canada and the Northeastern CONUS... Which would lead you to believe that would push any remaining cold down into portions of the CONUS, though the Western and North-Central US may be favored if the -PNA regime continues. So that doesn't necessarily mean around here, and also given the struggles of guidance at that range, I'd wait up to another week before putting stock into it. That all reminds me, I never did get out a post regarding the final 1/3rd of February. In the end, it doesn't matter much, as it's a continuation of what we saw for the middle 1/3rd of February across the CONUS.

It probably was a bit warmer downtown/near the lake, but there's a big difference between current day UHI and 1870-1900 UHI. And, as Harry and Josh pointed out, many of those winters were mild region-wide.

beavis taking L's everywhere.

And we're back... Warmest Winters (DJF): 1. 37.2 - 1877/78 2. 35.6 - 1931/32 3. 35.2 - 1879/80 4. 35.1 - 1881/82 5. 34.6 - 1889/90 6. 33.6 - 1875/76 7. 33.2 - 1997/98 (Nino) 8. 33.0 - 1918/19 9. 32.8 - 2011/12 (Nina) 9. 32.8 - 1920/21 11. 32.5 - 2001/02 (Neutral) 12. 32.4 - 1930/31 13. 32.3 - 1953/54 (Nino) 14. 31.4 - 2022/23 (Nina) *2/19 14. 31.4 - 2019/20 (Neutral) 14. 31.4 - 2015/16 (Nino)

Now that there has been a few days of melt, you can really see the narrow corridor that received max snowfall amounts.

Looks like 4.2” DVN and 2.3” MLI on the CLI. .

Added another 1.0" at ORD from 0-6z, for a final storm total of 2.0".

Easily the best looking LE on the western half of the lake this winter. .

Toss. Main convergence axis is passing downtown right now, and has been steadily shifting east. It's already fully offshore from NE Cook Co up through SE WI.

An additional 0.6" of SN/GS/PL accumulation from 18-0z at ORD, for a storm total of 1.0" thus far.

zzz.

Lake enhancement starting to get going across SE WI and NE IL. .

Got in to ORD about a half hour ago to find not only has PL dominated precip type, but the RA being reported was actually FZRA for the most part. There's a glaze of ice on colder/elevated surfaces, and several tenths of PL accumulation. During the morning/early afternoon before I got in, precip type has been a mix of SN/PL/FZRA/RA. Since getting in a bit ago, things have transitioned from PL/FZRA to PL to GS and now to -SN.

ORD on the board with a SN/PL accumulation total of 0.4" as of noon.

Have been flipping back and forth between RA and PL here at home since precip started earlier this morning. Solid dusting of PL.

Peak wind gust of 55MPH at ORD, with the high winds last evening through this morning.

it surprised me too.

something is going to happen between tonight and tomorrow night.

That projected MJO at face value suggests the likely continuation of a mild/active pattern for many, with best cold/snow chances locked up north. However, with the expected continued evolution of the SPV, which will fight back re: pattern, we could be looking at quite an active gradient pattern that fluctuates. A gamblers pattern to the extreme. It's still off in the late February to early March time period, but it is something to watch.